DOI: 10.1073/pnas.2013694117
论文题名: The role of “spillover” in antibiotic resistance
作者: Olesen S.W. ; Lipsitch M. ; Grad Y.H.
刊名: Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America
ISSN: 0027-8424
出版年: 2020
卷: 117, 期: 46 起始页码: 29063
结束页码: 29068
语种: 英语
英文关键词: Antibiotic resistance | antibiotic stewardship | Streptococcus pneumoniae | Escherichia coli
Scopus关键词: beta lactam
; macrolide
; quinoline derived antiinfective agent
; antibiotic resistance
; antimicrobial stewardship
; Article
; bacterial transmission
; drug use
; Escherichia coli
; Europe
; mathematical model
; observational method
; priority journal
; simulation
; social interaction
; social isolation
; Streptococcus pneumoniae
; United States
英文摘要: Antibiotic use is a key driver of antibiotic resistance. Understanding the quantitative association between antibiotic use and resulting resistance is important for predicting future rates of antibiotic resistance and for designing antibiotic stewardship policy. However, the use–resistance association is complicated by “spillover,” in which one population’s level of antibiotic use affects another population’s level of resistance via the transmission of bacteria between those populations. Spillover is known to have effects at the level of families and hospitals, but it is unclear if spillover is relevant at larger scales. We used mathematical modeling and analysis of observational data to address this question. First, we used dynamical models of antibiotic resistance to predict the effects of spillover. Whereas populations completely isolated from one another do not experience any spillover, we found that if even 1% of interactions are between populations, then spillover may have large consequences: The effect of a change in antibiotic use in one population on antibiotic resistance in that population could be reduced by as much as 50%. Then, we quantified spillover in observational antibiotic use and resistance data from US states and European countries for three pathogen–antibiotic combinations, finding that increased interactions between populations were associated with smaller differences in antibiotic resistance between those populations. Thus, spillover may have an important impact at the level of states and countries, which has ramifications for predicting the future of antibiotic resistance, designing antibiotic resistance stewardship policy, and interpreting stewardship interventions. © 2020 National Academy of Sciences. All rights reserved. Citation statistics:
资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/163948
Appears in Collections: 气候变化与战略
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作者单位: Olesen, S.W., Department of Immunology and Infectious Diseases, Harvard T. H. Chan School of Public Health, Boston, MA 02115, United States; Lipsitch, M., Department of Immunology and Infectious Diseases, Harvard T. H. Chan School of Public Health, Boston, MA 02115, United States, Center for Communicable DiseaseDynamics, Harvard T. H. Chan School of Public Health, Boston, MA 02115, United States; Grad, Y.H., Department of Immunology and Infectious Diseases, Harvard T. H. Chan School of Public Health, Boston, MA 02115, United States, Division of Infectious Diseases, Department of Medicine, Brigham, Women’s Hospital, Harvard Medical School, Boston, MA 02115, United States
Recommended Citation:
Olesen S.W.,Lipsitch M.,Grad Y.H.. The role of “spillover” in antibiotic resistance[J]. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America,2020-01-01,117(46)