DOI: 10.1073/pnas.2008590117
论文题名: Seasonality and uncertainty in global COVID-19 growth rates
作者: Merow C. ; Urban M.C.
刊名: Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America
ISSN: 0027-8424
出版年: 2020
卷: 117, 期: 44 起始页码: 27456
结束页码: 27464
语种: 英语
英文关键词: Climate
; Pandemic
; SARS-CoV-2
; UV light | humidity
Scopus关键词: Article
; autumn
; Bayes theorem
; climate change
; coronavirus disease 2019
; demography
; disease association
; environmental temperature
; growth rate
; human
; humidity
; infection risk
; infection sensitivity
; nonhuman
; pandemic
; prediction
; priority journal
; seasonal variation
; Severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2
; statistical model
; summer
; ultraviolet radiation
; uncertainty
; weather
; winter
; Betacoronavirus
; Coronavirus infection
; heat
; season
; virus pneumonia
; Betacoronavirus
; Coronavirus Infections
; Hot Temperature
; Humans
; Humidity
; Models, Statistical
; Pandemics
; Pneumonia, Viral
; Seasons
; Ultraviolet Rays
; Uncertainty
英文摘要: The virus causing COVID-19 has spread rapidly worldwide and threatens millions of lives. It remains unknown, as of April 2020, whether summer weather will reduce its spread, thereby alleviating strains on hospitals and providing time for vaccine development. Early insights from laboratory studies and research on related viruses predicted that COVID-19 would decline with higher temperatures, humidity, and ultraviolet (UV) light. Using current, fine-scaled weather data and global reports of infections, we develop a model that explains 36% of the variation in maximum COVID-19 growth rates based on weather and demography (17%) and country-specific effects (19%). UV light is most strongly associated with lower COVID-19 growth. Projections suggest that, without intervention, COVID-19 will decrease temporarily during summer, rebound by autumn, and peak next winter. Validation based on data from May and June 2020 confirms the generality of the climate signal detected. However, uncertainty remains high, and the probability of weekly doubling rates remains >20% throughout summer in the absence of social interventions. Consequently, aggressive interventions will likely be needed despite seasonal trends. © 2020 National Academy of Sciences. All rights reserved. Citation statistics:
资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/163966
Appears in Collections: 气候变化与战略
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作者单位: Merow, C., Eversource Energy Center, University of Connecticut, Storrs, CT 06268, United States, Center of Biological Risk, University of Connecticut, Storrs, CT 06268, United States, Department of Ecology & Evolutionary Biology, University of Connecticut, Storrs, CT 06268, United States; Urban, M.C., Center of Biological Risk, University of Connecticut, Storrs, CT 06268, United States, Department of Ecology & Evolutionary Biology, University of Connecticut, Storrs, CT 06268, United States
Recommended Citation:
Merow C.,Urban M.C.. Seasonality and uncertainty in global COVID-19 growth rates[J]. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America,2020-01-01,117(44)