DOI: 10.1073/pnas.2008410117
论文题名: BCG vaccine protection from severe coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19)
作者: Escobar L.E. ; Molina-Cruz A. ; Barillas-Mury C.
刊名: Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America
ISSN: 0027-8424
出版年: 2020
卷: 117, 期: 30 起始页码: 17720
结束页码: 17726
语种: 英语
英文关键词: BCG vaccination policy
; COVID-19 coronavirus
; Cross-protection
; Mortality
; Pandemic
Scopus关键词: BCG vaccine
; BCG vaccine
; immunological adjuvant
; age distribution
; aged
; Article
; controlled study
; coronavirus disease 2019
; disease course
; drug effect
; educational status
; epidemic
; health care access
; household income
; human
; major clinical study
; mortality rate
; nonhuman
; population density
; priority journal
; Severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2
; urbanization
; vaccination
; Betacoronavirus
; Coronavirus infection
; immunology
; mortality
; pandemic
; prognosis
; survival rate
; virology
; virus pneumonia
; Adjuvants, Immunologic
; Aged
; BCG Vaccine
; Betacoronavirus
; Coronavirus Infections
; Humans
; Pandemics
; Pneumonia, Viral
; Prognosis
; Survival Rate
; Vaccination
英文摘要: A series of epidemiological explorations has suggested a negative association between national bacillus Calmette–Guérin (BCG) vaccination policy and the prevalence and mortality of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19). However, these comparisons are difficult to validate due to broad differences between countries such as socioeconomic status, demographic structure, rural vs. urban settings, time of arrival of the pandemic, number of diagnostic tests and criteria for testing, and national control strategies to limit the spread of COVID-19. We review evidence for a potential biological basis of BCG cross-protection from severe COVID-19, and refine the epidemiological analysis to mitigate effects of potentially confounding factors (e.g., stage of the COVID-19 epidemic, development, rurality, population density, and age structure). A strong correlation between the BCG index, an estimation of the degree of universal BCG vaccination deployment in a country, and COVID-19 mortality in different socially similar European countries was observed (r2 = 0.88; P = 8 × 10-7), indicating that every 10% increase in the BCG index was associated with a 10.4% reduction in COVID-19 mortality. Results fail to confirm the null hypothesis of no association between BCG vaccination and COVID-19 mortality, and suggest that BCG could have a protective effect. Nevertheless, the analyses are restricted to coarse-scale signals and should be considered with caution. BCG vaccination clinical trials are required to corroborate the patterns detected here, and to establish causality between BCG vaccination and protection from severe COVID-19. Public health implications of a plausible BCG cross-protection from severe COVID-19 are discussed. © 2020 National Academy of Sciences. All rights reserved. Citation statistics:
资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/164122
Appears in Collections: 气候变化与战略
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作者单位: Escobar, L.E., Department of Fish and Wildlife Conservation, Virginia Polytechnic Institute and State University, Blacksburg, VA 24601, United States; Molina-Cruz, A., Laboratory of Malaria and Vector Research, National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases, National Institutes of Health, Bethesda, MD 20892, United States; Barillas-Mury, C., Laboratory of Malaria and Vector Research, National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases, National Institutes of Health, Bethesda, MD 20892, United States
Recommended Citation:
Escobar L.E.,Molina-Cruz A.,Barillas-Mury C.. BCG vaccine protection from severe coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19)[J]. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America,2020-01-01,117(30)