globalchange  > 气候变化与战略
DOI: 10.1073/pnas.1918987117
论文题名:
Greater flood risks in response to slowdown of tropical cyclones over the coast of China
作者: Lai Y.; Li J.; Gu X.; Chen Y.D.; Kong D.; Gan T.Y.; Liu M.; Li Q.; Wu G.
刊名: Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America
ISSN: 0027-8424
出版年: 2020
卷: 117, 期:26
起始页码: 14751
结束页码: 14755
语种: 英语
英文关键词: Flood risks ; Local rainfall totals ; Translation speed ; Tropical cyclones
Scopus关键词: rain ; Article ; calculation ; China ; controlled study ; evolutionary adaptation ; flooding ; global climate ; hurricane ; priority journal ; probability ; process model ; risk assessment ; seashore ; tropic climate
英文摘要: The total amount of rainfall associated with tropical cyclones (TCs) over a given region is proportional to rainfall intensity and the inverse of TC translation speed. Although the contributions of increase in rainfall intensity to larger total rainfall amounts have been extensively examined, observational evidence on impacts of the recently reported but still debated long-term slowdown of TCs on local total rainfall amounts is limited. Here, we find that both observations and the multimodel ensemble of Global Climate Model simulations show a significant slowdown of TCs (11% in observations and 10% in simulations, respectively) from 1961 to 2017 over the coast of China. Our analyses of long-term observations find a significant increase in the 90th percentile of TC-induced local rainfall totals and significant inverse relationships between TC translation speeds and local rainfall totals over the study period. The study also shows that TCs with lower translation speed and higher rainfall totals occurred more frequently after 1990 in the Pearl River Delta in southern China. Our probability analysis indicates that slow-moving TCs are more likely to generate heavy rainfall of higher total amounts than fast-moving TCs. Our findings suggest that slowdown of TCs tends to elevate local rainfall totals and thus impose greater flood risks at the regional scale. © 2020 National Academy of Sciences. All rights reserved.
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资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/164143
Appears in Collections:气候变化与战略

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作者单位: Lai, Y., Department of Geography, Hong Kong Baptist University, Hong Kong, Key Laboratory for Geo-Environmental Monitoring of Great Bay Area, Ministry of Natural Resources, Shenzhen University, Shenzhen, 518060, China; Li, J., Department of Geography, Hong Kong Baptist University, Hong Kong; Gu, X., Department of Atmospheric Science, School of Environmental Studies, China University of Geosciences, Wuhan, 430074, China; Chen, Y.D., School of Humanities and Social Science, Chinese University of Hong Kong, Shenzhen, 518172, Hong Kong, Department of Geography and Resource Management, Chinese University of Hong Kong, Hong Kong, Hong Kong; Kong, D., Department of Atmospheric Science, School of Environmental Studies, China University of Geosciences, Wuhan, 430074, China; Gan, T.Y., Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, University of Alberta, Edmonton, AB T6G2W2, Canada; Liu, M., Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, Princeton University, Princeton, NJ 08540, United States; Li, Q., Key Laboratory for Geo-Environmental Monitoring of Great Bay Area, Ministry of Natural Resources, Shenzhen University, Shenzhen, 518060, China; Wu, G., Key Laboratory for Geo-Environmental Monitoring of Great Bay Area, Ministry of Natural Resources, Shenzhen University, Shenzhen, 518060, China

Recommended Citation:
Lai Y.,Li J.,Gu X.,et al. Greater flood risks in response to slowdown of tropical cyclones over the coast of China[J]. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America,2020-01-01,117(26)
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