DOI: 10.1073/pnas.1921628117
论文题名: Human influence has intensified extreme precipitation in North America
作者: Kirchmeier-Young M.C. ; Zhang X.
刊名: Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America
ISSN: 0027-8424
出版年: 2020
卷: 117, 期: 24 起始页码: 13308
结束页码: 13313
语种: 英语
英文关键词: Attribution
; Extreme precipitation
; Regional climate change
Scopus关键词: article
; climate change
; human
; North America
; precipitation
; simulation
英文摘要: Precipitation extremes have implications for many facets of both the human and natural systems, predominantly through flooding events. Observations have demonstrated increasing trends in extreme precipitation in North America, and models and theory consistently suggest continued increases with future warming. Here, we address the question of whether observed changes in annual maximum 1- and 5-d precipitation can be attributed to human influence on the climate. Although attribution has been demonstrated for global and hemispheric scales, there are few results for continental and subcontinental scales. We utilize three large ensembles, including simulations from both a fully coupled Earth system model and a regional climate model. We use two different attribution approaches and find many qualitatively consistent results across different methods, different models, and different regional scales. We conclude that external forcing, dominated by human influence, has contributed to the increase in frequency and intensity of regional precipitation extremes in North America. If human emissions continue to increase, North America will see further increases in these extremes. © 2020 National Academy of Sciences. All rights reserved. Citation statistics:
资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/164156
Appears in Collections: 气候变化与战略
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作者单位: Kirchmeier-Young, M.C., Climate Research Division, Environment and Climate Change Canada, Toronto, ONT M3H 5T4, Canada; Zhang, X., Climate Research Division, Environment and Climate Change Canada, Toronto, ONT M3H 5T4, Canada
Recommended Citation:
Kirchmeier-Young M.C.,Zhang X.. Human influence has intensified extreme precipitation in North America[J]. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America,2020-01-01,117(24)