globalchange  > 气候变化与战略
DOI: 10.1073/pnas.1916545117
论文题名:
Caring for the future can turn tragedy into comedy for long-term collective action under risk of collapse
作者: Barfuss W.; Donges J.F.; Vasconcelos V.V.; Kurths J.; Levin S.A.
刊名: Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America
ISSN: 0027-8424
出版年: 2020
卷: 117, 期:23
起始页码: 12915
结束页码: 12922
语种: 英语
英文关键词: Social dilemma ; Stochastic game ; Time preferences ; Tipping element
Scopus关键词: Article ; care behavior ; climate change ; clinical outcome ; collapse ; coordination ; disaster ; ecology ; environmental impact ; game ; priority journal ; social aspect ; stochastic model ; time factor
英文摘要: We will need collective action to avoid catastrophic climate change, and this will require valuing the long term as well as the short term. Shortsightedness and uncertainty have hindered progress in resolving this collective action problem and have been recognized as important barriers to cooperation among humans. Here, we propose a coupled social–ecological dilemma to investigate the interdependence of three well-identified components of this cooperation problem: 1) timescales of collapse and recovery in relation to time preferences regarding future outcomes, 2) the magnitude of the impact of collapse, and 3) the number of actors in the collective. We find that, under a sufficiently severe and time-distant collapse, how much the actors care for the future can transform the game from a tragedy of the commons into one of coordination, and even into a comedy of the commons in which cooperation dominates. Conversely, we also find conditions under which even strong concern for the future still does not transform the problem from tragedy to comedy. For a large number of participating actors, we find that the critical collapse impact, at which these game regime changes happen, converges to a fixed value of collapse impact per actor that is independent of the enhancement factor of the public good, which is usually regarded as the driver of the dilemma. Our results not only call for experimental testing but also help explain why polarization in beliefs about human-caused climate change can threaten global cooperation agreements.This work was developed in the context of the project on Coevolutionary Pathways in the Earth System at the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK), within the Princeton–Humboldt Cooperation and Collective Cognition Network, and the Princeton–Stockholm Resilience Centre–PIK Resilience Network. This work emerged from one chapter of the doctoral dissertation of W.B. W.B. acknowledges funding from the Heinrich Böll Foundation. J.F.D. acknowledges funding from Earth League’s EarthDoc program, European Research Council Advanced Grant Project Earth Resilience in the Anthropocene, and Leibniz Association Project DominoES (Domino effects in the Earth system). V.V.V. acknowledges funding from the Princeton Institute for International and Regional Studies, Rapid Switch Community. S.A.L. and V.V.V. acknowledge funding by the US Defense Advanced Research Projects Agency (D17AC00005) and the NSF Grant GEO-1211972. We thank Jobst Heitzig for insightful discussions. © 2020 National Academy of Sciences. All rights reserved.
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资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/164175
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作者单位: Barfuss, W., Earth System Analysis, Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, Member of the Leibniz Association, Potsdam, 14473, Germany, Complexity Science, Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, Member of the Leibniz Association, Potsdam, 14473, Germany, Max Planck Institute for Mathematics in the Sciences, Leipzig, 04103, Germany, Department of Physics, Humboldt University Berlin, Berlin, 12489, Germany; Donges, J.F., Earth System Analysis, Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, Member of the Leibniz Association, Potsdam, 14473, Germany, Stockholm Resilience Centre, Stockholm University, Stockholm, 11419, Sweden; Vasconcelos, V.V., Department of Ecology and Evolutionary Biology, Princeton University, Princeton, NJ 08544, United States, Andlinger Center for Energy and the Environment, Princeton University, Princeton, NJ 08544, United States, Princeton Institute for International and Regional Studies, Princeton University, Princeton, NJ 08544, United States; Kurths, J., Complexity Science, Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, Member of the Leibniz Association, Potsdam, 14473, Germany, Department of Physics, Humboldt University Berlin, Berlin, 12489, Germany, Department of Biology, Saratov State University, Saratov, 410012, Russian Federation; Levin, S.A., Department of Ecology and Evolutionary Biology, Princeton University, Princeton, NJ 08544, United States

Recommended Citation:
Barfuss W.,Donges J.F.,Vasconcelos V.V.,et al. Caring for the future can turn tragedy into comedy for long-term collective action under risk of collapse[J]. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America,2020-01-01,117(23)
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