globalchange  > 气候变化与战略
DOI: 10.1073/pnas.1920849117
论文题名:
Global increase in major tropical cyclone exceedance probability over the past four decades
作者: Kossin J.P.; Knapp K.R.; Olander T.L.; Velden C.S.
刊名: Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America
ISSN: 0027-8424
出版年: 2020
卷: 117, 期:22
语种: 英语
英文关键词: Climate ; Hurricane ; Intensity ; Trend ; Tropical cyclone
Scopus关键词: article ; climate ; computer simulation ; expectation ; probability ; theoretical study ; warming ; hurricane
英文摘要: Theoretical understanding of the thermodynamic controls on tropical cyclone (TC) wind intensity, as well as numerical simulations, implies a positive trend in TC intensity in a warming world. The global instrumental record of TC intensity, however, is known to be heterogeneous in both space and time and is generally unsuitable for global trend analysis. To address this, a homogenized data record based on satellite data was previously created for the period 1982-2009. The 28-y homogenized record exhibited increasing global TC intensity trends, but they were not statistically significant at the 95% confidence level. Based on observed trends in the thermodynamic mean state of the tropical environment during this period, however, it was argued that the 28-y period was likely close to, but shorter than, the time required for a statistically significant positive global TC intensity trend to appear. Here the homogenized global TC intensity record is extended to the 39-y period 1979-2017, and statistically significant (at the 95% confidence level) increases are identified. Increases and trends are found in the exceedance probability and proportion of major (Saffir−Simpson categories 3 to 5) TC intensities, which is consistent with expectations based on theoretical understanding and trends identified in numerical simulations in warming scenarios. Major TCs pose, by far, the greatest threat to lives and property. Between the early and latter halves of the time period, the major TC exceedance probability increases by about 8% per decade, with a 95% CI of 2 to 15% per decade. © 2020 National Academy of Sciences. All rights reserved.
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资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/164187
Appears in Collections:气候变化与战略

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作者单位: Kossin, J.P., Center for Weather and Climate, National Centers for Environmental Information, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Madison, WI 53706, United States; Knapp, K.R., Center for Weather and Climate, National Centers for Environmental Information, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Asheville, NC 28801, United States; Olander, T.L., Cooperative Institute for Meteorological Satellite Studies, University of Wisconsin-Madison, Madison, WI 53706, United States; Velden, C.S., Cooperative Institute for Meteorological Satellite Studies, University of Wisconsin-Madison, Madison, WI 53706, United States

Recommended Citation:
Kossin J.P.,Knapp K.R.,Olander T.L.,et al. Global increase in major tropical cyclone exceedance probability over the past four decades[J]. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America,2020-01-01,117(22)
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