DOI: 10.1073/pnas.1910719117
论文题名: Rainfall anomalies are a significant driver of cropland expansion
作者: Zaveri E. ; Russ J. ; Damania R.
刊名: Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America
ISSN: 0027-8424
出版年: 2020
卷: 117, 期: 19 起始页码: 10225
结束页码: 10233
语种: 英语
英文关键词: Agricultural expansion
; Dams
; Deforestation
; Land use change
; Rainfall variability
Scopus关键词: rain
; Article
; climate change
; crop production
; cropland
; deforestation
; developing country
; environmental protection
; forest
; irrigation (agriculture)
; land use
; priority journal
英文摘要: Rainfall anomalies have long occupied center stage in policy discussions, and understanding their impacts on agricultural production has become more important as climate change intensifies. However, the global scale of rainfall-induced productivity shocks on changes in cropland is yet to be quantified. Here we identify how rainfall anomalies impact observed patterns of cropped areas at a global scale by leveraging locally determined unexpected variations in rainfall. Employing disaggregated panel data at the grid level, we find that repeated dry anomalies lead to an increase in cropland expansion in developing countries. No discernible effects are detected from repeated wet events. That these effects are confined to developing countries, which are often dominated by small-holder farmers, implies that they may be in response to reduced yields. The estimates suggest that overall, in developing countries, dry anomalies account for ∼9% of the rate of cropland expansion over the past two decades. We perform several tests to check for consistency and robustness of this relationship. First, using forest cover as an alternative measure, we find comparable reductions in forest cover in the same regions where cropland expands due to repeated dry anomalies. Second, we test the relationship in regions where yields are buffered from rainfall anomalies by irrigation infrastructure and find that the impact on cropland expansion is mitigated, providing further support for our results. Since cropland expansion is a significant driver of deforestation, these results have important implications for forest loss and environmental services. © 2020 National Academy of Sciences. All rights reserved. Citation statistics:
资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/164212
Appears in Collections: 气候变化与战略
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作者单位: Zaveri, E., Water Global Practice, World Bank, Washington, DC 20433, United States; Russ, J., Water Global Practice, World Bank, Washington, DC 20433, United States; Damania, R., Water Global Practice, World Bank, Washington, DC 20433, United States
Recommended Citation:
Zaveri E.,Russ J.,Damania R.. Rainfall anomalies are a significant driver of cropland expansion[J]. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America,2020-01-01,117(19)