globalchange  > 气候变化与战略
DOI: 10.1073/pnas.2004978117
论文题名:
Spread and dynamics of the COVID-19 epidemic in Italy: Effects of emergency containment measures
作者: Gatto M.; Bertuzzo E.; Mari L.; Miccoli S.; Carraro L.; Casagrandi R.; Rinaldo A.
刊名: Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America
ISSN: 0027-8424
出版年: 2020
卷: 117, 期:19
起始页码: 10484
结束页码: 10491
语种: 英语
英文关键词: Disease outbreak scenarios ; SARS-CoV-2 ; SEIR models ; Social contact restrictions ; Spatially explicit epidemiology
Scopus关键词: Article ; computer simulation ; contact examination ; coronavirus disease 2019 ; disease control ; disease course ; disease re-emergence ; disease severity assessment ; disease simulation ; disease transmission ; emergency care ; emergency health service ; environmental exposure ; epidemic ; epidemiological data ; evolution ; health care planning ; health care policy ; hospitalization ; human ; infection control ; Italy ; Markov chain Monte Carlo method ; mathematical model ; mathematical parameters ; metacommunity Susceptible Exposed Infected Recovered like transmission model ; patient mobility ; population dynamics ; priority journal ; probability ; Severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 ; social behavior ; statistical analysis ; basic reproduction number ; Betacoronavirus ; communicable disease control ; Coronavirus infection ; pandemic ; procedures ; theoretical model ; virus pneumonia ; Basic Reproduction Number ; Betacoronavirus ; Communicable Disease Control ; Coronavirus Infections ; Hospitalization ; Humans ; Italy ; Models, Theoretical ; Pandemics ; Pneumonia, Viral
英文摘要: The spread of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) in Italy prompted drastic measures for transmission containment. We examine the effects of these interventions, based on modeling of the unfolding epidemic. We test modeling options of the spatially explicit type, suggested by the wave of infections spreading from the initial foci to the rest of Italy. We estimate parameters of a metacommunity Susceptible–Exposed–Infected–Recovered (SEIR)like transmission model that includes a network of 107 provinces connected by mobility at high resolution, and the critical contribution of presymptomatic and asymptomatic transmission. We estimate a generalized reproduction number (R0 = 3.60 [3.49 to 3.84]), the spectral radius of a suitable next-generation matrix that measures the potential spread in the absence of containment interventions. The model includes the implementation of progressive restrictions after the first case confirmed in Italy (February 21, 2020) and runs until March 25, 2020. We account for uncertainty in epidemiological reporting, and time dependence of human mobility matrices and awareness-dependent exposure probabilities. We draw scenarios of different containment measures and their impact. Results suggest that the sequence of restrictions posed to mobility and human-to-human interactions have reduced transmission by 45% (42 to 49%). Averted hospitalizations are measured by running scenarios obtained by selectively relaxing the imposed restrictions and total about 200,000 individuals (as of March 25, 2020). Although a number of assumptions need to be reexamined, like age structure in social mixing patterns and in the distribution of mobility, hospitalization, and fatality, we conclude that verifiable evidence exists to support the planning of emergency measures. © 2020 National Academy of Sciences. All rights reserved.
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资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/164217
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作者单位: Gatto, M., Dipartimento di Elettronica, Informazione e Bioingegneria, Politecnico di Milano, Milano, 20133, Italy; Bertuzzo, E., Dipartimento di Scienze Ambientali, Informatica e Statistica, Università Ca’ Foscari Venezia, Venezia-Mestre, 30172, Italy, Science of Complexity Research Unit, European Centre for Living Technology, Venice, 30123, Italy; Mari, L., Dipartimento di Elettronica, Informazione e Bioingegneria, Politecnico di Milano, Milano, 20133, Italy; Miccoli, S., Dipartimento di Meccanica, Politecnico di Milano, Milano, 20133, Italy; Carraro, L., Department of Aquatic Ecology, Swiss Federal Institute of Aquatic Science and Technology, Dübendorf, 8600, Switzerland, Department of Evolutionary Biology and Environmental Studies, University of Zurich, Zurich, 8057, Switzerland; Casagrandi, R., Dipartimento di Elettronica, Informazione e Bioingegneria, Politecnico di Milano, Milano, 20133, Italy; Rinaldo, A., Laboratory of Ecohydrology, École Polytechnique Fédérale de Lausanne, Lausanne, 1015, Switzerland, Dipartimento di Ingegneria Civile, Edile e Ambientale, Università di Padova, Padova, 35131, Italy

Recommended Citation:
Gatto M.,Bertuzzo E.,Mari L.,et al. Spread and dynamics of the COVID-19 epidemic in Italy: Effects of emergency containment measures[J]. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America,2020-01-01,117(19)
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