globalchange  > 气候变化与战略
DOI: 10.1073/pnas.1912206117
论文题名:
Impact of Xylella fastidiosa subspecies pauca in European olives
作者: Schneider K.; van der Werf W.; Cendoya M.; Mourits M.; Navas-Cortés J.A.; Vicent A.; Lansink A.O.
刊名: Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America
ISSN: 0027-8424
出版年: 2020
卷: 117, 期:17
起始页码: 9250
结束页码: 9259
语种: 英语
英文关键词: Perennials ; Pest risk assessment ; Radial range expansion ; Simulation ; Species distribution models
Scopus关键词: olive oil ; Article ; biological trait ; climate ; controlled study ; economic aspect ; nonhuman ; olive ; plant disease ; plant yield ; priority journal ; simulation ; Xylella fastidiosa ; Xylella fastidiosa subspecies pauca ; economic model ; Greece ; Italy ; metabolism ; microbiology ; olive tree ; pathogenicity ; Spain ; theoretical model ; Xylella ; Greece ; Italy ; Models, Economic ; Models, Theoretical ; Olea ; Plant Diseases ; Spain ; Xylella
英文摘要: Xylella fastidiosa is the causal agent of plant diseases that cause massive economic damage. In 2013, a strain of the bacterium was, for the first time, detected in the European territory (Italy), causing the Olive Quick Decline Syndrome. We simulate future spread of the disease based on climatic-suitability modeling and radial expansion of the invaded territory. An economic model is developed to compute impact based on discounted foregone profits and losses in investment. The model projects impact for Italy, Greece, and Spain, as these countries account for around 95% of the European olive oil production. Climatic suitability modeling indicates that, depending on the suitability threshold, 95.5 to 98.9%, 99.2 to 99.8%, and 84.6 to 99.1% of the national areas of production fall into suitable territory in Italy, Greece, and Spain, respectively. For Italy, across the considered rates of radial range expansion the potential economic impact over 50 y ranges from 1.9 billion to 5.2 billion Euros for the economic worst-case scenario, in which production ceases after orchards die off. If replanting with resistant varieties is feasible, the impact ranges from 0.6 billion to 1.6 billion Euros. Depending on whether replanting is feasible, between 0.5 billion and 1.3 billion Euros can be saved over the course of 50 y if disease spread is reduced from 5.18 to 1.1 km per year. The analysis stresses the necessity to strengthen the ongoing research on cultivar resistance traits and application of phytosanitary measures, including vector control and inoculum suppression, by removing host plants. © 2020 National Academy of Sciences. All rights reserved.
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资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/164227
Appears in Collections:气候变化与战略

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作者单位: Schneider, K., Business Economics Group, Wageningen University, Wageningen, 6700 EW, Netherlands; van der Werf, W., Centre for Crop Systems Analysis, Wageningen University, Wageningen, 6700 AK, Netherlands; Cendoya, M., Centre de Protecció Vegetal i Biotecnología, Institut Valencià d’Investigacions Agràries, Moncada (Valencia), 46113, Spain; Mourits, M., Business Economics Group, Wageningen University, Wageningen, 6700 EW, Netherlands; Navas-Cortés, J.A., Institute for Sustainable Agriculture, Spanish National Research Council (CSIC), Córdoba, 14004, Spain; Vicent, A., Centre de Protecció Vegetal i Biotecnología, Institut Valencià d’Investigacions Agràries, Moncada (Valencia), 46113, Spain; Lansink, A.O., Business Economics Group, Wageningen University, Wageningen, 6700 EW, Netherlands

Recommended Citation:
Schneider K.,van der Werf W.,Cendoya M.,et al. Impact of Xylella fastidiosa subspecies pauca in European olives[J]. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America,2020-01-01,117(17)
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