globalchange  > 气候变化与战略
DOI: 10.1073/pnas.1913678117
论文题名:
The effects of communicating uncertainty on public trust in facts and numbers
作者: van der Bles A.M.; van der Linden S.; Freeman A.L.J.; Spiegelhalter D.J.
刊名: Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America
ISSN: 0027-8424
出版年: 2020
卷: 117, 期:14
起始页码: 7672
结束页码: 7683
语种: 英语
英文关键词: Communication ; Contested ; Posttruth ; Trust ; Uncertainty
Scopus关键词: article ; field experiment ; greenhouse effect ; human ; human experiment ; immigration ; major clinical study ; trust ; uncertainty ; Internet ; interpersonal communication ; meta analysis (topic) ; Communication ; Humans ; Internet ; Meta-Analysis as Topic ; Trust ; Uncertainty
英文摘要: Uncertainty is inherent to our knowledge about the state of the world yet often not communicated alongside scientific facts and numbers. In the “posttruth” era where facts are increasingly contested, a common assumption is that communicating uncertainty will reduce public trust. However, a lack of systematic research makes it difficult to evaluate such claims. We conducted five experiments-including one preregistered replication with a national sample and one field experiment on the BBC News website (total n = 5,780)-to examine whether communicating epistemic uncertainty about facts across different topics (e.g., global warming, immigration), formats (verbal vs. numeric), and magnitudes (high vs. low) influences public trust. Results show that whereas people do perceive greater uncertainty when it is communicated, we observed only a small decrease in trust in numbers and trustworthiness of the source, and mostly for verbal uncertainty communication. These results could help reassure all communicators of facts and science that they can be more open and transparent about the limits of human knowledge. © 2020 National Academy of Sciences. All rights reserved.
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资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/164257
Appears in Collections:气候变化与战略

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作者单位: van der Bles, A.M., Winton Centre for Risk and Evidence Communication, University of Cambridge, Cambridge, CB3 0WA, United Kingdom, Department of Pure Mathematics and Mathematical Statistics, University of Cambridge, Cambridge, CB3 0WA, United Kingdom, Department of Social Psychology, University of Groningen, Groningen, 19712 TS, Netherlands; van der Linden, S., Winton Centre for Risk and Evidence Communication, University of Cambridge, Cambridge, CB3 0WA, United Kingdom, Department of Pure Mathematics and Mathematical Statistics, University of Cambridge, Cambridge, CB3 0WA, United Kingdom, Cambridge Social Decision-Making Lab, Department of Psychology, University of Cambridge, Cambridge, CB2 3RQ, United Kingdom; Freeman, A.L.J., Winton Centre for Risk and Evidence Communication, University of Cambridge, Cambridge, CB3 0WA, United Kingdom, Department of Pure Mathematics and Mathematical Statistics, University of Cambridge, Cambridge, CB3 0WA, United Kingdom; Spiegelhalter, D.J., Winton Centre for Risk and Evidence Communication, University of Cambridge, Cambridge, CB3 0WA, United Kingdom, Department of Pure Mathematics and Mathematical Statistics, University of Cambridge, Cambridge, CB3 0WA, United Kingdom

Recommended Citation:
van der Bles A.M.,van der Linden S.,Freeman A.L.J.,et al. The effects of communicating uncertainty on public trust in facts and numbers[J]. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America,2020-01-01,117(14)
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