DOI: 10.1073/pnas.1911015117
论文题名: Time-evolving sea-surface warming patterns modulate the climate change response of subtropical precipitation over land
作者: Zappa G. ; Ceppi P. ; Shepherd T.G.
刊名: Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America
ISSN: 0027-8424
出版年: 2020
卷: 117, 期: 9 起始页码: 4539
结束页码: 4545
语种: 英语
英文关键词: Climate change
; CMIP5
; Hydrological cycle
; Mediterranean climates
Scopus关键词: article
; California
; Chile
; climate change
; evaporation
; greenhouse gas
; hydroclimate
; precipitation
; sea surface temperature
; warming
英文摘要: Greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions affect precipitation worldwide. The response is commonly described by two timescales linked to different processes: a rapid adjustment to radiative forcing, followed by a slower response to surface warming. However, additional timescales exist in the surface-warming response, tied to the time evolution of the sea-surface-temperature (SST) response. Here, we show that in climate model projections, the rapid adjustment and surface mean warming are insufficient to explain the time evolution of the hydro-climate response in three key Mediterranean-like areas-namely, California, Chile, and the Mediterranean. The time evolution of those responses critically depends on distinct shifts in the regional atmospheric circulation associated with the existence of distinct fast and slow SST warming patterns. As a result, Mediterranean and Chilean drying are in quasiequilibrium with GHG concentrations, meaning that the drying will not continue after GHG concentrations are stabilized, whereas California wetting will largely emerge only after GHG concentrations are stabilized. The rapid adjustment contributes to a reduction in precipitation, but has a limited impact on the balance between precipitation and evaporation. In these Mediterranean-like regions, future hydro-climate-related impacts will be substantially modulated by the time evolution of the pattern of SST warming that is realized in the real world. © 2020 National Academy of Sciences. All rights reserved. Citation statistics:
资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/164294
Appears in Collections: 气候变化与战略
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作者单位: Zappa, G., Department of Meteorology, University of Reading, Reading, RG6 6BB, United Kingdom, Istituto di Scienze dell'Atmosfera e del Clima, Consiglio Nazionale delle Ricerche, Bologna, 40129, Italy; Ceppi, P., Grantham Institute for Climate Change and the Environment, Imperial College London, London, SW7 2AZ, United Kingdom; Shepherd, T.G., Department of Meteorology, University of Reading, Reading, RG6 6BB, United Kingdom
Recommended Citation:
Zappa G.,Ceppi P.,Shepherd T.G.. Time-evolving sea-surface warming patterns modulate the climate change response of subtropical precipitation over land[J]. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America,2020-01-01,117(9)