DOI: 10.1073/pnas.1913007117
论文题名: Recent responses to climate change reveal the drivers of species extinction and survival
作者: Román-Palacios C. ; Wiens J.J.
刊名: Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America
ISSN: 0027-8424
出版年: 2020
卷: 117, 期: 8 起始页码: 4211
结束页码: 4217
语种: 英语
英文关键词: Climate change
; Disperal
; Extinction
; Niche shift
Scopus关键词: Article
; biodiversity
; climate change
; ecological niche
; environmental temperature
; nonhuman
; plant
; population dispersal
; prediction
; priority journal
; species extinction
; species identification
; survival
; survival analysis
; animal
; animal dispersal
; classification
; ecosystem
; heat
; plant development
; Animal Distribution
; Animals
; Biodiversity
; Climate Change
; Ecosystem
; Extinction, Biological
; Hot Temperature
; Plant Development
; Plants
英文摘要: Climate change may be a major threat to biodiversity in the next 100 years. Although there has been important work on mechanisms of decline in some species, it generally remains unclear which changes in climate actually cause extinctions, and how many species will likely be lost. Here, we identify the specific changes in climate that are associated with the widespread local extinctions that have already occurred. We then use this information to predict the extent of future biodiversity loss and to identify which processes may forestall extinction. We used data from surveys of 538 plant and animal species over time, 44% of which have already had local extinctions at one or more sites. We found that locations with local extinctions had larger and faster changes in hottest yearly temperatures than those without. Surprisingly, sites with local extinctions had significantly smaller changes in mean annual temperatures, despite the widespread use of mean annual temperatures as proxies for overall climate change. Based on their past rates of dispersal, we estimate that 57–70% of these 538 species will not disperse quickly enough to avoid extinction. However, we show that niche shifts appear to be far more important for avoiding extinction than dispersal, although most studies focus only on dispersal. Specifically, considering both dispersal and niche shifts, we project that only 16–30% of these 538 species may go extinct by 2070. Overall, our results help identify the specific climatic changes that cause extinction and the processes that may help species to survive. © 2020 National Academy of Sciences. All rights reserved. Citation statistics:
资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/164308
Appears in Collections: 气候变化与战略
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作者单位: Román-Palacios, C., Department of Ecology and Evolutionary Biology, University of Arizona, Tucson, AZ 85721, United States; Wiens, J.J., Department of Ecology and Evolutionary Biology, University of Arizona, Tucson, AZ 85721, United States
Recommended Citation:
Román-Palacios C.,Wiens J.J.. Recent responses to climate change reveal the drivers of species extinction and survival[J]. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America,2020-01-01,117(8)