globalchange  > 气候变化与战略
DOI: 10.1073/pnas.1914829117
论文题名:
Climate change and the opportunity cost of conflict
作者: Roche K.R.; Müller-Itten M.; Dralle D.N.; Bolster D.; Müller M.F.
刊名: Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America
ISSN: 0027-8424
出版年: 2020
卷: 117, 期:4
起始页码: 1935
结束页码: 1940
语种: 英语
英文关键词: Agriculture ; Income shock ; Microeconomic theory ; Rainfall ; Violence
Scopus关键词: rain ; adaptation ; agriculture ; Article ; climate change ; climate resilience ; conflict management ; controlled study ; cost of conflict ; environmental policy ; income ; priority journal ; process optimization ; quantitative analysis ; seasonal variation ; crop ; economic development ; economics ; growth, development and aging ; human ; risk factor ; theoretical model ; violence ; war ; water supply ; Armed Conflicts ; Climate Change ; Crops, Agricultural ; Economic Development ; Humans ; Models, Theoretical ; Risk Factors ; Violence ; Water Supply
英文摘要: A growing empirical literature associates climate anomalies with increased risk of violent conflict. This association has been portrayed as a bellwether of future societal instability as the frequency and intensity of extreme weather events are predicted to increase. This paper investigates the theoretical foundation of this claim. A seminal microeconomic model of opportunity costs-a mechanism often thought to drive climate-conflict relationships- is extended by considering realistic changes in the distribution of climate-dependent agricultural income. Results advise caution in using empirical associations between short-run climate anomalies and conflicts to predict the effect of sustained shifts in climate regimes: Although war occurs in bad years, conflict may decrease if agents expect more frequent bad years. Theory suggests a nonmonotonic relation between climate variability and conflict that emerges as agents adapt and adjust their behavior to the new income distribution. We identify 3 measurable statistics of the income distribution that are each unambiguously associated with conflict likelihood. Jointly, these statistics offer a unique signature to distinguish opportunity costs from competing mechanisms that may relate climate anomalies to conflict. © 2020 National Academy of Sciences. All rights reserved.
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资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/164343
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作者单位: Roche, K.R., Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering and Earth Sciences, University of Notre Dame, Notre Dame, IN 46556, United States; Müller-Itten, M., Department of Economics, University of Notre Dame, Notre Dame, IN 46556, United States; Dralle, D.N., Department of Geology, California State University, Sacramento, CA 95819, United States; Bolster, D., Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering and Earth Sciences, University of Notre Dame, Notre Dame, IN 46556, United States; Müller, M.F., Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering and Earth Sciences, University of Notre Dame, Notre Dame, IN 46556, United States

Recommended Citation:
Roche K.R.,Müller-Itten M.,Dralle D.N.,et al. Climate change and the opportunity cost of conflict[J]. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America,2020-01-01,117(4)
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