DOI: 10.5194/tc-14-3155-2020
论文题名: Evaluating permafrost physics in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project 6 (CMIP6) models and their sensitivity to climate change
作者: Burke E.J. ; Zhang Y. ; Krinner G.
刊名: Cryosphere
ISSN: 19940416
出版年: 2020
卷: 14, 期: 9 起始页码: 3155
结束页码: 3174
语种: 英语
英文关键词: air temperature
; climate change
; climate modeling
; CMIP
; permafrost
; soil profile
; Arctic
英文摘要: Permafrost is a ubiquitous phenomenon in the Arctic. Its future evolution is likely to control changes in northern high-latitude hydrology and biogeochemistry. Here we evaluate the permafrost dynamics in the global models participating in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (present generation - CMIP6; previous generation - CMIP5) along with the sensitivity of permafrost to climate change. Whilst the northern high-latitude air temperatures are relatively well simulated by the climate models, they do introduce a bias into any subsequent model estimate of permafrost. Therefore evaluation metrics are defined in relation to the air temperature. This paper shows that the climate, snow and permafrost physics of the CMIP6 multi-model ensemble is very similar to that of the CMIP5 multi-model ensemble. The main differences are that a small number of models have demonstrably better snow insulation in CMIP6 than in CMIP5 and a small number have a deeper soil profile. These changes lead to a small overall improvement in the representation of the permafrost extent. There is little improvement in the simulation of maximum summer thaw depth between CMIP5 and CMIP6. We suggest that more models should include a better-resolved and deeper soil profile as a first step towards addressing this. We use the annual mean thawed volume of the top 2m of the soil defined from the model soil profiles for the permafrost region to quantify changes in permafrost dynamics. The CMIP6 models project that the annual mean frozen volume in the top 2m of the soil could decrease by 10 %-40%C1 of global mean surface air temperature increase. © 2020 Copernicus GmbH. All rights reserved. Citation statistics:
资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/164415
Appears in Collections: 气候变化与战略
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作者单位: Met Office Hadley Centre, FitzRoy Road, Exeter, EX1 3PB, United Kingdom; Canada Centre for Mapping and Earth Observation, Natural Resources Canada, Ottawa, ON, Canada; Institut des Géosciences de l'Environnement, CNRS, Université Grenoble Alpes, Grenoble, France
Recommended Citation:
Burke E.J.,Zhang Y.,Krinner G.. Evaluating permafrost physics in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project 6 (CMIP6) models and their sensitivity to climate change[J]. Cryosphere,2020-01-01,14(9)