globalchange  > 气候变化与战略
DOI: 10.5194/tc-14-3071-2020
论文题名:
The future sea-level contribution of the Greenland ice sheet: A multi-model ensemble study of ISMIP6
作者: Goelzer H.; Nowicki S.; Payne A.; Larour E.; Seroussi H.; Lipscomb W.H.; Gregory J.; Abe-Ouchi A.; Shepherd A.; Simon E.; Agosta C.; Alexander P.; Aschwanden A.; Barthel A.; Calov R.; Chambers C.; Choi Y.; Cuzzone J.; Dumas C.; Edwards T.; Felikson D.; Fettweis X.; Golledge N.R.; Greve R.; Humbert A.; Huybrechts P.; Le Clec'H S.; Lee V.; Leguy G.; Little C.; Lowry D.; Morlighem M.; Nias I.; Quiquet A.; Rückamp M.; Schlegel N.-J.; Slater D.A.; Smith R.; Straneo F.; Tarasov L.; Van De Wal R.; Van Den Broeke M.
刊名: Cryosphere
ISSN: 19940416
出版年: 2020
卷: 14, 期:9
起始页码: 3071
结束页码: 3096
语种: 英语
英文关键词: climate modeling ; CMIP ; ensemble forecasting ; global climate ; greenhouse gas ; ice retreat ; meltwater ; model ; runoff ; sea level change ; Arctic ; Arctic Ocean ; Greenland ; Greenland Ice Sheet
英文摘要: The Greenland ice sheet is one of the largest contributors to global mean sea-level rise today and is expected to continue to lose mass as the Arctic continues to warm. The two predominant mass loss mechanisms are increased surface meltwater run-off and mass loss associated with the retreat of marine-terminating outlet glaciers. In this paper we use a large ensemble of Greenland ice sheet models forced by output from a representative subset of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) global climate models to project ice sheet changes and sea-level rise contributions over the 21st century. The simulations are part of the Ice Sheet Model Intercomparison Project for CMIP6 (ISMIP6).We estimate the sea-level contribution together with uncertainties due to future climate forcing, ice sheet model formulations and ocean forcing for the two greenhouse gas concentration scenarios RCP8.5 and RCP2.6. The results indicate that the Greenland ice sheet will continue to lose mass in both scenarios until 2100, with contributions of 90-50 and 32-17mm to sea-level rise for RCP8.5 and RCP2.6, respectively. The largest mass loss is expected from the south-west of Greenland, which is governed by surface mass balance changes, continuing what is already observed today. Because the contributions are calculated against an unforced control experiment, these numbers do not include any committed mass loss, i.e. mass loss that would occur over the coming century if the climate forcing remained constant. Under RCP8.5 forcing, ice sheet model uncertainty explains an ensemble spread of 40 mm, while climate model uncertainty and ocean forcing uncertainty account for a spread of 36 and 19 mm, respectively. Apart from those formally derived uncertainty ranges, the largest gap in our knowledge is about the physical understanding and implementation of the calving process, i.e. the interaction of the ice sheet with the ocean. © Author(s) 2020.
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资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/164467
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作者单位: Institute for Marine and Atmospheric Research Utrecht, Utrecht University, Utrecht, Netherlands; Laboratoire de Glaciologie, Université Libre de Bruxelles, Brussels, Belgium; Cryospheric Sciences Laboratory, Goddard Space Flight Center, Nasa, Greenbelt, MD 20771, United States; Centre for Polar Observation and Modelling, School of Geographical Sciences, University of Bristol, Bristol, United Kingdom; Jet Propulsion Laboratory, California Institute of Technology, Pasadena, CA 91109, United States; Climate and Global Dynamics Laboratory, National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, CO 80305, United States; National Centre for Atmospheric Science, University of Reading, Reading, United Kingdom; Met Office, Hadley Centre, Exeter, United Kingdom; Atmosphere and Ocean Research Institute, University of Tokyo, Kashiwa-shi, Chiba, 277-8564, Japan; Centre for Polar Observation and Modelling, University of Leeds, Leeds, LS2 9JT, United Kingdom; Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l'Environnement, LSCE/IPSL, CEA-CNRS-UVSQ, Université Paris-Saclay, Gif-sur-Yvette, 91191, France; Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory, Columbia University, Palisades, NY 10964, United States; Nasa Goddard Institute for Space Studies, New York, NY 10025, United States; Geophysical Institute, University of Alaska, Fairbanks, AK 99775, United States; Los Alamos National Laboratory, Los Alamos, NM 87545, United States; Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, Potsdam, Germany; Institute of Low Temperature Science, Hokkaido University, Sapporo, Japan; Department of Earth System Science, University of California IrvineCA 92697, United States; Department of Geography, King's College London, London, United Kingdom; Laboratory of Climatology, Department of Geography, Spheres Research Unit, University of Liège, Liège, Belgium; Antarctic Research Centre, Victoria University of Wellington, Wellington, New Zealand; Arctic Research Center, Hokkaido University, Sapporo, Japan; Alfred-Wegener-Institut Helmholtz-Zentrum für Polar-und Meeresforschung, Bremerhaven, Germany; Faculty of Geosciences, University of Bremen, Bremen, Germany; Earth System Science and Departement Geografie, Vrije Universiteit Brussel, Brussels, Belgium; Atmospheric and Environmental Research Inc, Lexington, MA 02421, United States; Gns Science, Lower Hutt, New Zealand; Earth System Science Interdisciplinary Center, University of Maryland, College Park, MD 20740, United States; Scripps Institution of Oceanography, University of California San Diego, San diego, CA 92037, United States; Dept of Physics and Physical Oceanography, Memorial University of Newfoundland, Canada; Geosciences, Physical Geography, Utrecht University, Utrecht University, Utrecht, Netherlands; Norce Norwegian Research Centre, Bjerknes Centre for Climate Research, Bergen, Norway; Department of Geography and Planning, School of Environmental Sciences, University of Liverpool, Liverpool, United Kingdom; School of Geography and Sustainable Development, University of St.Andrews, St.Andrews, United Kingdom

Recommended Citation:
Goelzer H.,Nowicki S.,Payne A.,et al. The future sea-level contribution of the Greenland ice sheet: A multi-model ensemble study of ISMIP6[J]. Cryosphere,2020-01-01,14(9)
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