globalchange  > 气候变化与战略
DOI: 10.5194/tc-14-3033-2020
论文题名:
ISMIP6 Antarctica: A multi-model ensemble of the Antarctic ice sheet evolution over the 21st century
作者: Seroussi H.; Nowicki S.; Payne A.J.; Goelzer H.; Lipscomb W.H.; Abe-Ouchi A.; Agosta C.; Albrecht T.; Asay-Davis X.; Barthel A.; Calov R.; Cullather R.; Dumas C.; Galton-Fenzi B.K.; Gladstone R.; Golledge N.R.; Gregory J.M.; Greve R.; Hattermann T.; Hoffman M.J.; Humbert A.; Huybrechts P.; Jourdain N.C.; Kleiner T.; Larour E.; Leguy G.R.; Lowry D.P.; Little C.M.; Morlighem M.; Pattyn F.; Pelle T.; Price S.F.; Quiquet A.; Reese R.; Schlegel N.-J.; Shepherd A.; Simon E.; Smith R.S.; Straneo F.; Sun S.; Trusel L.D.; Breedam J.V.; Van De Wal R.S.W.; Winkelmann R.; Zhao C.; Zhang T.; Zwinger T.
刊名: Cryosphere
ISSN: 19940416
出版年: 2020
卷: 14, 期:9
起始页码: 3033
结束页码: 3070
语种: 英语
英文关键词: climate conditions ; CMIP ; ice flow ; ice sheet ; ice shelf ; ice-ocean interaction ; sea level ; sea level change ; twentieth century ; twenty first century ; Antarctic Ice Sheet ; Antarctica ; East Antarctica
英文摘要: Ice flow models of the Antarctic ice sheet are commonly used to simulate its future evolution in response to different climate scenarios and assess the mass loss that would contribute to future sea level rise. However, there is currently no consensus on estimates of the future mass balance of the ice sheet, primarily because of differences in the representation of physical processes, forcings employed and initial states of ice sheet models. This study presents results from ice flow model simulations from 13 international groups focusing on the evolution of the Antarctic ice sheet during the period 2015-2100 as part of the Ice Sheet Model Intercomparison for CMIP6 (ISMIP6). They are forced with outputs from a subset of models from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5), representative of the spread in climate model results. Simulations of the Antarctic ice sheet contribution to sea level rise in response to increased warming during this period varies between 7:8 and 30.0 cm of sea level equivalent (SLE) under Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 8.5 scenario forcing. These numbers are relative to a control experiment with constant climate conditions and should therefore be added to the mass loss contribution under climate conditions similar to presentday conditions over the same period. The simulated evolution of the West Antarctic ice sheet varies widely among models, with an overall mass loss, up to 18.0 cm SLE, in response to changes in oceanic conditions. East Antarctica mass change varies between 6:1 and 8.3 cm SLE in the simulations, with a significant increase in surface mass balance outweighing the increased ice discharge under most RCP 8.5 scenario forcings. The inclusion of ice shelf collapse, here assumed to be caused by large amounts of liquid water ponding at the surface of ice shelves, yields an additional simulated mass loss of 28mm compared to simulations without ice shelf collapse. The largest sources of uncertainty come from the climate forcing, the ocean-induced melt rates, the calibration of these melt rates based on oceanic conditions taken outside of ice shelf cavities and the ice sheet dynamic response to these oceanic changes. Results under RCP 2.6 scenario based on two CMIP5 climate models show an additional mass loss of 0 and 3 cm of SLE on average compared to simulations done under present-day conditions for the two CMIP5 forcings used and display limited mass gain in East Antarctica. © Author(s) 2020.
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资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/164585
Appears in Collections:气候变化与战略

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作者单位: Jet Propulsion Laboratory, California Institute of Technology, Pasadena, CA, United States; Nasa Goddard Space Flight Center, GreenbeltMD, United States; University of Bristol, Bristol, United Kingdom; Institute for Marine and Atmospheric Research Utrecht, Utrecht University, Utrecht, Netherlands; Laboratoire de Glaciologie, Université Libre de Bruxelles, Brussels, Belgium; Climate and Global Dynamics Laboratory, National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, CO, United States; University of Tokyo, Tokyo, Japan; Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l'Environnement, LSCE-IPSL, CEA-CNRS-UVSQ, Université Paris-Saclay, Gif-sur-Yvette, France; Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK), Member of the Leibniz Association, P.O. Box 601203, Potsdam, 14412, Germany; Theoretical Division, Los Alamos National Laboratory, Los Alamos, NM, United States; Arctic Centre, University of Lapland, Rovaniemi, Finland; Antarctic Research Centre, Victoria University of Wellington, Wellington, New Zealand; National Centre for Atmospheric Science, University of Reading, Reading, United Kingdom; Met Office Hadley Centre, Exeter, United Kingdom; Institute of Low Temperature Science, Hokkaido University, Sapporo, Japan; Arctic Research Center, Hokkaido University, Sapporo, Japan; Norwegian Polar Institute, Tromsø, Norway; Energy and Climate Group, Department of Physics and Technology, Arctic University-University of Tromsø, Tromsø, Norway; Alfred Wegener Institute for Polar and Marine Research, Am Handelshafen 12, Bremerhaven, 27570, Germany; Department of Geoscience, University of Bremen, Klagenfurter Straße 2-4, Bremen, 28334, Germany; Earth System Science and Departement Geografie, Vrije Universiteit Brussel, Brussels, Belgium; Univ. Grenoble Alpes/CNRS/IRD/G-INP, Institut des Geósciences de l'Environnement, Grenoble, France; Gns Science, Lower Hutt, New Zealand; Atmospheric and Environmental Research Inc., Lexington, MA, United States; Department of Earth System Science, University of California Irvine, Irvine, CA, United States; Centre for Polar Observation and Modelling, University of Leeds, Leeds, United Kingdom; Scripps Institution of Oceanography, University of California San Diego, San diego, CA, United States; Department of Geography, Pennsylvania State University, University ParkPA, United States; Geosciences, Physical Geography, Utrecht University, Utrecht, Netherlands; University of Potsdam, Institute of Physics and Astronomy, Karl-Liebknecht-Str. 24-25, Potsdam, 14476, Germany; Institute for Marine and Antarctic Studies, University of Tasmania, Hobart, Australia; CSC-IT Center for Science, Espoo, Finland; Australian Antarctic Division, Kingston, TAS, Australia

Recommended Citation:
Seroussi H.,Nowicki S.,Payne A.J.,et al. ISMIP6 Antarctica: A multi-model ensemble of the Antarctic ice sheet evolution over the 21st century[J]. Cryosphere,2020-01-01,14(9)
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