DOI: 10.1016/j.epsl.2020.116402
论文题名: Comment on “Elastic strain energy and pore-fluid pressure control of aftershocks” by Terakawa et al. [Earth Planet. Sci. Lett. 535 (2020) 116103]
作者: Mignan A. ; Broccardo M.
刊名: Earth and Planetary Science Letters
ISSN: 0012821X
出版年: 2020
卷: 544 语种: 英语
中文关键词: confirmation bias
; data leakage
; earthquake generation
; Landers earthquake
; null-hypothesis testing
; ROC analysis
英文关键词: Earth (planet)
; Strain energy
; Area under the curves
; Binary classification
; Classifier performance
; Distance-based models
; Earthquake focal mechanisms
; Earthquake nucleation
; Elastic strain energy
; Statistical learning
; Earthquakes
英文摘要: Aftershock occurrence is the dominant phenomenon observed in seismicity, offering a wealth of data for the statistical learning of the earthquake nucleation process. However, physical interpretability can be biased by a number of well-known pitfalls. In this comment, we show that the study of Terakawa et al. (2020), who concluded that the spatial distribution of aftershocks is best explained by a combination of elastic strain energy and pore-fluid pressure change (ΔEFS), is beset by both confirmation bias and data leakage. Using the same data (1992 Landers mainshock), procedure (binary classification), and metrics (Area Under the Curve, AUC), we find that the simple empirical model based on aftershock-distance-to-mainshock-rupture (Mignan and Broccardo, 2019) performs to a level (AUC = 0.76) similar to the one obtained by ΔEFS (AUC = 0.75 [0.70-0.77]). Including the Big Bear rupture improves the distance-based model performance up to AUC = 0.86. From a statistical perspective, we further show that including pore-fluid pressure change, being calculated from earthquake focal mechanisms, is equivalent to implicitly propagating aftershock location information into the model. Such type of data leakage clearly improves any classifier performance. © 2020 Elsevier B.V. Citation statistics:
资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/165164
Appears in Collections: 气候变化与战略
There are no files associated with this item.
作者单位: Institute of Risk Analysis, Prediction and Management, Academy for Advanced Interdisciplinary Studies, Southern University of Science and Technology, Shenzhen, China; Department of Earth and Space Sciences, Southern University of Science and Technology, Shenzhen, China; Swiss Seismological Service, Swiss Federal Institute of Technology, Zurich, Switzerland; Department of Civil, Environmental and Mechanical Engineering, University of Trento, Italy
Recommended Citation:
Mignan A.,Broccardo M.. Comment on “Elastic strain energy and pore-fluid pressure control of aftershocks” by Terakawa et al. [Earth Planet. Sci. Lett. 535 (2020) 116103][J]. Earth and Planetary Science Letters,2020-01-01,544