DOI: 10.1016/j.earscirev.2019.01.001
论文题名: Spatially explicit simulation of land use/land cover changes: Current coverage and future prospects
作者: Ren Y. ; Lü Y. ; Comber A. ; Fu B. ; Harris P. ; Wu L.
刊名: Earth Science Reviews
ISSN: 00128252
出版年: 2019
卷: 190 起始页码: 398
结束页码: 415
语种: 英语
中文关键词: Land cover
; Land use
; Pattern-based model
; Process-based model
; Spatially explicit simulation
英文关键词: decision making
; ecological modeling
; future prospect
; land cover
; land use change
; nature-society relations
英文摘要: Land use/land cover (LULC) change models are powerful tools used to understand and explain the causes and effects of LULC dynamics, and scenario-based analyses with these models can support land management and decision-making better. This paper provides a synoptic and selective review of current LULC change models and the novel frameworks that are being used to investigate LULC dynamics. Existing LULC models that explore the interactions between human and the environment can be pattern- or process-based, inductive or deductive, dynamic or static, spatial or non-spatial, and regional or global. This review focuses on the spectrum from pattern- to process-based approaches and compares their strengths, weaknesses, applications, and broad differences. We draw insights from the recent land use change literature and make five suggestions that can support a deeper understanding of land system science by: (1) overcoming the difficulties in comparing and scaling Agent Based Models; (2) capturing interactions of human-environment systems; (3) enhancing the credibility of LULC change modeling; (4) constructing common modeling platforms by coupling data and models, and (5) bridging the associations between LULC change modeling and policy-making. Although considerable progress has been made, theoretical and empirical efforts are still needed to improve our understanding of LULC dynamics and their implications for policy-oriented research. It is crucial to integrate the key elements of research involved in this study (e.g., use of common protocols and online portals, integration of top-down and bottom-up approaches, effective quantification and communication of modeling uncertainties, generalization and simplification of models, increased focus on the theoretical and empirical bases of models, and open comparative research) to bridge the gaps between small-scale process exploration and large-scale representation of LULC patterns, and to use LULC change modeling to inform decision-making. © 2019 Elsevier B.V. Citation statistics:
资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/165917
Appears in Collections: 气候变化与战略
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作者单位: State Key Laboratory of Urban and Regional Ecology, Research Center for Eco-Environmental Sciences, Chinese Academy of Sciences, PO Box 2871, Beijing, 100085, China; University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, 100049, China; School of Geography, University of Leeds, Leeds, LS2 9JT, United Kingdom; Rothamsted Research, North Wyke, Okehampton, Devon EX20 2SB, United Kingdom
Recommended Citation:
Ren Y.,Lü Y.,Comber A.,et al. Spatially explicit simulation of land use/land cover changes: Current coverage and future prospects[J]. Earth Science Reviews,2019-01-01,190