DOI: 10.1111/ele.13401
论文题名: Foreseeing the future of mutualistic communities beyond collapse
作者: Lever J.J. ; van de Leemput I.A. ; Weinans E. ; Quax R. ; Dakos V. ; van Nes E.H. ; Bascompte J. ; Scheffer M.
刊名: Ecology Letters
ISSN: 1461023X
出版年: 2020
卷: 23, 期: 1 起始页码: 2
结束页码: 15
语种: 英语
中文关键词: critical slowing down
; Critical transitions
; ecological networks
; forecasting
; global environmental change
; mutualistic communities
; predictive ecology
英文关键词: ecological approach
; ecosystem dynamics
; environmental change
; facilitation
; forecasting method
; lacustrine environment
; landscape ecology
; mutualism
; prediction
; biological model
; demography
; ecosystem
; forecasting
; symbiosis
; Ecosystem
; Forecasting
; Models, Biological
; Residence Characteristics
; Symbiosis
英文摘要: Changing conditions may lead to sudden shifts in the state of ecosystems when critical thresholds are passed. Some well-studied drivers of such transitions lead to predictable outcomes such as a turbid lake or a degraded landscape. Many ecosystems are, however, complex systems of many interacting species. While detecting upcoming transitions in such systems is challenging, predicting what comes after a critical transition is terra incognita altogether. The problem is that complex ecosystems may shift to many different, alternative states. Whether an impending transition has minor, positive or catastrophic effects is thus unclear. Some systems may, however, behave more predictably than others. The dynamics of mutualistic communities can be expected to be relatively simple, because delayed negative feedbacks leading to oscillatory or other complex dynamics are weak. Here, we address the question of whether this relative simplicity allows us to foresee a community's future state. As a case study, we use a model of a bipartite mutualistic network and show that a network's post-transition state is indicated by the way in which a system recovers from minor disturbances. Similar results obtained with a unipartite model of facilitation suggest that our results are of relevance to a wide range of mutualistic systems. © 2019 The Authors. Ecology Letters published by CNRS and John Wiley & Sons Ltd Citation statistics:
资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/166658
Appears in Collections: 气候变化与战略
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作者单位: Department of Evolutionary Biology and Environmental Studies, University of Zurich, Winterthurerstrasse 190, Zurich, CH-8057, Switzerland; Department of Aquatic Ecology and Water Quality Management, Wageningen University, P.O. Box 47, Wageningen, NL-6700 AA, Netherlands; Computational Science Lab, University of Amsterdam, Amsterdam, NL-1098 XH, Netherlands; Institute of Advanced Studies, University of Amsterdam, Amsterdam, 1012 GC, Netherlands; Institut des Sciences de l'Evolution de Montpellier (ISEM), BioDICée Team, CNRS, Université de Montpellier, Montpellier, France
Recommended Citation:
Lever J.J.,van de Leemput I.A.,Weinans E.,et al. Foreseeing the future of mutualistic communities beyond collapse[J]. Ecology Letters,2020-01-01,23(1)