globalchange  > 气候变化与战略
DOI: 10.1111/ele.13459
论文题名:
Assessing seasonal demographic covariation to understand environmental-change impacts on a hibernating mammal
作者: Paniw M.; Childs D.Z.; Armitage K.B.; Blumstein D.T.; Martin J.G.A.; Oli M.K.; Ozgul A.
刊名: Ecology Letters
ISSN: 1461023X
出版年: 2020
卷: 23, 期:4
起始页码: 588
结束页码: 597
语种: 英语
中文关键词: Bayesian population model ; carry-over effects ; demography ; factor-analytic models ; seasonal structured population models ; viability
英文关键词: Mammalia ; Marmota ; Marmota flaviventris ; animal ; climate ; demography ; Marmota ; population dynamics ; season ; Animals ; Climate ; Demography ; Marmota ; Population Dynamics ; Seasons
英文摘要: Natural populations are exposed to seasonal variation in environmental factors that simultaneously affect several demographic rates (survival, development and reproduction). The resulting covariation in these rates determines population dynamics, but accounting for its numerous biotic and abiotic drivers is a significant challenge. Here, we use a factor-analytic approach to capture partially unobserved drivers of seasonal population dynamics. We use 40 years of individual-based demography from yellow-bellied marmots (Marmota flaviventer) to fit and project population models that account for seasonal demographic covariation using a latent variable. We show that this latent variable, by producing positive covariation among winter demographic rates, depicts a measure of environmental quality. Simultaneously, negative responses of winter survival and reproductive-status change to declining environmental quality result in a higher risk of population quasi-extinction, regardless of summer demography where recruitment takes place. We demonstrate how complex environmental processes can be summarized to understand population persistence in seasonal environments. © 2020 John Wiley & Sons Ltd/CNRS
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资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/166693
Appears in Collections:气候变化与战略

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作者单位: Department of Evolutionary Biology and Environmental Studies, University of Zurich, Winterthurerstrasse 190, Zurich, CH-8057, Switzerland; Ecological and Forestry Applications Research Centre (CREAF), Campus de Bellaterra (UAB) Edifici C, Cerdanyola del Vallès, ES-08193, Spain; Department of Animal and Plant Sciences, University of Sheffield, Western Bank, Sheffield, S10 2TN, United Kingdom; Ecology & Evolutionary Biology Department, The University of Kansas, Lawrence, KS 66045-7534, United States; Department of Ecology and Evolutionary Biology, University of California Los Angeles, Los Angeles, CA 90095, United States; The Rocky Mountain Biological Laboratory, Crested Butte, CO 81224, United States; School of Biological Sciences, University of Aberdeen, Aberdeen, AB24 2TZ, United Kingdom; Department of Biology, University of Ottawa, Ottawa, K1N 9A7, Canada; Department of Wildlife Ecology, University of Florida, Gainesville, FL 32611, United States

Recommended Citation:
Paniw M.,Childs D.Z.,Armitage K.B.,et al. Assessing seasonal demographic covariation to understand environmental-change impacts on a hibernating mammal[J]. Ecology Letters,2020-01-01,23(4)
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