globalchange  > 气候变化与战略
DOI: 10.1111/ele.13582
论文题名:
Structural forecasting of species persistence under changing environments
作者: Saavedra S.; Medeiros L.P.; AlAdwani M.
刊名: Ecology Letters
ISSN: 1461023X
出版年: 2020
卷: 23, 期:10
起始页码: 1511
结束页码: 1521
语种: 英语
中文关键词: ecological communities ; ensemble theory ; experimental tests ; nonlinear population dynamics ; out-of-sample predictions ; probability ; statistical mechanics ; structural stability
英文关键词: complexity ; data interpretation ; environmental change ; experimental study ; growth rate ; persistence ; population dynamics ; population modeling ; probability ; biological model ; biometry ; ecosystem ; forecasting ; population dynamics ; Biometry ; Ecosystem ; Forecasting ; Models, Biological ; Population Dynamics
英文摘要: The persistence of a species in a given place not only depends on its intrinsic capacity to consume and transform resources into offspring, but also on how changing environmental conditions affect its growth rate. However, the complexity of factors has typically taken us to choose between understanding and predicting the persistence of species. To tackle this limitation, we propose a probabilistic approach rooted on the statistical concepts of ensemble theory applied to statistical mechanics and on the mathematical concepts of structural stability applied to population dynamics models – what we call structural forecasting. We show how this new approach allows us to estimate a probability of persistence for single species in local communities; to understand and interpret this probability conditional on the information we have concerning a system; and to provide out-of-sample predictions of species persistence as good as the best experimental approaches without the need of extensive amounts of data. © 2020 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.
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资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/166708
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作者单位: Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, MIT, 77 Massachusetts Av, Cambridge, MA 02139, United States

Recommended Citation:
Saavedra S.,Medeiros L.P.,AlAdwani M.. Structural forecasting of species persistence under changing environments[J]. Ecology Letters,2020-01-01,23(10)
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