DOI: 10.1111/ele.13603
论文题名: Phenological asynchrony: a ticking time-bomb for seemingly stable populations?
作者: Simmonds E.G. ; Cole E.F. ; Sheldon B.C. ; Coulson T.
刊名: Ecology Letters
ISSN: 1461023X
出版年: 2020
卷: 23, 期: 12 起始页码: 1766
结束页码: 1775
语种: 英语
中文关键词: Asynchrony
; climate change
; evolution
; extinction
; integral project model
; mismatch
; phenology
; plasticity
; predictions
英文关键词: animal
; bomb
; climate change
; food chain
; population dynamics
; season
; Animals
; Bombs
; Climate Change
; Food Chain
; Population Dynamics
; Seasons
英文摘要: Climate change has been shown to induce shifts in the timing of life-history events. As a result, interactions between species can become disrupted, with potentially detrimental effects. Predicting these consequences has proven challenging. We apply structured population models to a well-characterised great tit-caterpillar model system and identify thresholds of temporal asynchrony, beyond which the predator population will rapidly go extinct. Our model suggests that phenotypic plasticity in predator breeding timing initially maintains temporal synchrony in the face of environmental change. However, under projections of climate change, predator plasticity was insufficient to keep pace with prey phenology. Directional evolution then accelerated, but could not prevent mismatch. Once predator phenology lagged behind prey by more than 24 days, rapid extinction was inevitable, despite previously stable population dynamics. Our projections suggest that current population stability could be masking a route to population collapse, if high greenhouse gas emissions continue. © 2020 The Authors. Ecology Letters published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd. Citation statistics:
资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/166722
Appears in Collections: 气候变化与战略
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作者单位: Department of Zoology, Edward Grey Institute, University of Oxford, Oxford, OX1 3SZ, United Kingdom; Department of Mathematical Sciences and Centre for Biodiversity Dynamics, Norwegian University of Science and Technology (NTNU), Trondheim, Norway
Recommended Citation:
Simmonds E.G.,Cole E.F.,Sheldon B.C.,et al. Phenological asynchrony: a ticking time-bomb for seemingly stable populations?[J]. Ecology Letters,2020-01-01,23(12)