DOI: 10.1111/ele.13756
论文题名: Altered precipitation dynamics lead to a shift in herbivore dynamical regime
作者: Pepi A. ; Holyoak M. ; Karban R.
刊名: Ecology Letters
ISSN: 1461023X
出版年: 2021
卷: 24, 期: 7 起始页码: 1400
结束页码: 1407
语种: 英语
中文关键词: climate change
; delayed density-dependence
; population dynamics
; stochastic resonance
英文关键词: climate change
; density dependence
; environmental gradient
; herbivore
; moth
; population dynamics
; precipitation (climatology)
; California
; United States
; climate change
; herbivory
; periodicity
; population dynamics
; Climate Change
; Herbivory
; Periodicity
; Population Dynamics
英文摘要: The interaction between endogenous dynamics and exogenous environmental variation is central to population dynamics. Although investigations into the effects of changing mean climate are widespread, changing patterns of variation in environmental forcing also affect dynamics in complex ways. Using wavelet and time series analyses, we identify a regime shift in the dynamics of a moth species in California from shorter to longer period oscillations over a 34-year census, and contemporaneous changes in regional precipitation dynamics. Simulations support the hypothesis that shifting precipitation dynamics drove changes in moth dynamics, possibly due to stochastic resonance with delayed density-dependence. The observed shift in climate dynamics and the interaction with endogenous dynamics mean that predicting future population dynamics will require information on both climatic shifts and their interaction with endogenous density-dependence, a combination that is rarely available. Consequently, models based on historical data may be unable to predict future population dynamics. © 2021 John Wiley & Sons Ltd. Citation statistics:
资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/166911
Appears in Collections: 气候变化与战略
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作者单位: Graduate Group in Ecology, University of California Davis, Davis, CA, United States; Department of Entomology and Nematology, University of California Davis, Davis, CA, United States; Department of Environmental Science and Policy, University of California Davis, Davis, CA, United States
Recommended Citation:
Pepi A.,Holyoak M.,Karban R.. Altered precipitation dynamics lead to a shift in herbivore dynamical regime[J]. Ecology Letters,2021-01-01,24(7)