DOI: 10.1016/j.enpol.2020.111497
论文题名: The shift in global crude oil market structure: A model-based analysis of the period 2013–2017
作者: Berk I. ; Çam E.
刊名: Energy Policy
ISSN: 03014215
出版年: 2020
卷: 142 语种: 英语
中文关键词: 2014 oil price decline
; Crude oil market structure
; Market simulation model
; OPEC+ agreement
英文关键词: Commerce
; Petroleum analysis
; Competitive markets
; Global oil market
; Market power potentials
; Market structures
; Model-based analysis
; Oligopolistic markets
; Partial equilibrium model
; Spatial structure
; Crude oil price
; competition (economics)
; crude oil
; energy market
; energy policy
; oil production
; price determination
; price dynamics
; Russian Federation
; Saudi Arabia
英文摘要: This paper analyzes the recent developments in the global oil market, investigating how the 2014–2016 price collapse and the following OPEC+ agreement affected the crude oil market structure and the behavior of major suppliers. To this end, we develop a partial equilibrium model with a spatial structure for the global crude oil market and simulate the market for the period between 2013 and 2017 under different market structure setups. The simulation results reveal that, although the oligopolistic market structures fit overall well to the realized market outcomes, they are not successful at explaining the low prices during 2015 and 2016, which instead are closer to estimated competitive levels. We further suggest that from 2014 onward, the market power potential of major suppliers has shrunk considerably, supporting the view that the market has become more competitive. We also analyze the Saudi Arabia- and Russia-led OPEC+ agreement, and find that planned production cuts in 2017, particularly of Saudi Arabia and Russia, were below the levels of estimated non-competitive market structure setups. © 2020 Elsevier Ltd Citation statistics:
资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/167025
Appears in Collections: 气候变化与战略
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作者单位: Department of Economics, Faculty of Business, Dokuz Eylül University, Kaynaklar Yerleşkesi, Izmir 35160, Turkey; Institute of Energy Economics, University of Cologne, Vogelsanger Strasse 321a, Cologne, 50827, Germany
Recommended Citation:
Berk I.,Çam E.. The shift in global crude oil market structure: A model-based analysis of the period 2013–2017[J]. Energy Policy,2020-01-01,142