globalchange  > 气候变化与战略
DOI: 10.1016/j.enpol.2020.111868
论文题名:
Shale gas potential in China: A production forecast of the Wufeng-Longmaxi Formation and implications for future development
作者: Chen Y.; Xu J.; Wang P.
刊名: Energy Policy
ISSN: 03014215
出版年: 2020
卷: 147
语种: 英语
中文关键词: Analogy method ; Drilling plan ; Longmaxi ; Natural gas market ; Shale gas boom
英文关键词: Carbon ; Gas emissions ; Infill drilling ; Shale gas ; Analogy method ; Billion cubic meters ; Carbon emissions ; Competitive markets ; Implications for futures ; Production forecasts ; Scenario simulations ; Technology improvement ; Wellheads ; drilling ; energy market ; forecasting method ; future prospect ; gas production ; gas well ; natural gas ; scenario analysis ; shale gas ; China ; United States
英文摘要: Developing the abundant shale gas in China is a potential means to address the country's challenges in air pollution and carbon emissions. The purpose of this paper is to evaluate the production potential of the most promising shale gas play—the Wufeng-Longmaxi Formation (WL) in China. We use a Difference-Index analogy method and well-level U.S. shale gas drilling data to estimate the production potential and use a scenario simulation method to propose optimal drilling plans. The results show that the Wufeng-Longmaxi Formation has the potential to produce 70 billion cubic meters of natural gas per year (Bcm/yr), which is 60% of the gas imported into China in 2018. With technology improvement and drilling of more wells, the target of 80–100 Bcm/yr set by the government can be achieved solely by extraction from WL. We find that shale gas drilling is profitable with a well-head price of 1.5 Chinese Yuan per cubic meter. The study indicates that a shale gas boom in China is possible, depending on a more competitive market both upstream and downstream. The successful development of shale gas will change the country's energy mix to become cleaner and lower-carbon. © 2020 Elsevier Ltd
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资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/167076
Appears in Collections:气候变化与战略

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作者单位: Institutes of Science and Development, Chinese Academy of Sciences, No.15 Zhongguancun Beiyitiao Alley, Haidian District, Beijing, 100190, China; National School of Development, Peking University, Beijing, 100871, China

Recommended Citation:
Chen Y.,Xu J.,Wang P.. Shale gas potential in China: A production forecast of the Wufeng-Longmaxi Formation and implications for future development[J]. Energy Policy,2020-01-01,147
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