DOI: 10.1016/j.enpol.2020.111239
论文题名: When and why does transition fail? A model-based identification of adoption barriers and policy vulnerabilities for transition to natural gas vehicles
作者: Hidayatno A. ; Jafino B.A. ; Setiawan A.D. ; Purwanto W.W.
刊名: Energy Policy
ISSN: 03014215
出版年: 2020
卷: 138 语种: 英语
中文关键词: Adoption barriers
; Exploratory modelling
; Natural gas vehicles
; Policy vulnerabilities
; Technology diffusion
英文关键词: Automobiles
; Autonomous agents
; Behavioral research
; Computational methods
; Decision making
; Natural gas
; Adoption barriers
; Agent-based model
; Decision makers
; Diffusion analysis
; Diffusion of innovation theory
; Economic factors
; Model-based identification
; Technology diffusion
; Natural gas vehicles
; adoption behavior
; cost analysis
; energy policy
; natural gas
; technological development
; technology diffusion
; vulnerability
; Indonesia
; Jakarta
英文摘要: Natural gas vehicles (NGV) face significant adoption barriers in Jakarta. Therefore, a successful transition requires measures from the government. Owing to the high cost of transition policies, the efficacy of these policies must be analyzed to identify the most effective policy. The implementation of transition policies, however, could dynamically influence people's perception and behavior, which then changes the landscape of adoption barriers. Furthermore, even a seemingly successful policy may fail when a certain pathway of uncertainties emerges in the future. To address these concerns, we integrated agent-based modeling, exploratory modeling, and diffusion of innovation theory into the exploratory model-based diffusion analysis approach. This approach evaluates the policy's performance, explores changes in the relative importance of different adoption barriers, and identifies policy vulnerabilities, i.e., scenarios leading to policy failures. We tested this approach on four NGV transition policies targeting three adoption barriers. We found that the importance of adoption barriers and the critical uncertainties upon the implemented policies. The social–behavioral barrier predominates under current conditions, whereas the economic factor becomes more relevant when all policies are executed. Understanding the changes in adoption barriers and policy vulnerabilities will help decision-makers to prepare additional measures that ensure a successful transition. © 2020 Elsevier Ltd Citation statistics:
资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/167234
Appears in Collections: 气候变化与战略
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作者单位: Industrial Engineering Department, Faculty of Engineering, Universitas, Indonesia; Policy Analysis Section, Faculty of Technology, Policy, and Management, Delft University of Technology, Netherlands; Chemical Engineering Department, Faculty of Engineering, Universitas, Indonesia
Recommended Citation:
Hidayatno A.,Jafino B.A.,Setiawan A.D.,et al. When and why does transition fail? A model-based identification of adoption barriers and policy vulnerabilities for transition to natural gas vehicles[J]. Energy Policy,2020-01-01,138