DOI: 10.1016/j.enpol.2019.111103
论文题名: Long-term electric vehicles outlook and their potential impact on electric grid
作者: Kapustin N.O. ; Grushevenko D.A.
刊名: Energy Policy
ISSN: 03014215
出版年: 2020
卷: 137 语种: 英语
中文关键词: Electric vehicles
; Electricity demand
; Forecast
; Modelling
; Power sector
; Transport sector
英文关键词: Automobile manufacture
; Electric energy storage
; Electric power utilization
; Electric vehicles
; Forecasting
; Fossil fuels
; Fuel storage
; Internal combustion engines
; Models
; Sales
; Vehicle-to-grid
; Vehicles
; Auto manufacturers
; Electricity demands
; Electricity-consumption
; Energy storage technologies
; Government supports
; Power sector
; Private enterprise
; Transport sectors
; Electric power transmission networks
; demand analysis
; electric vehicle
; electricity supply
; energy use
; forecasting method
; modeling
英文摘要: The last decade was marked by a new boom of popularity for electric transport. Massive government support helped increase EV annual sales from just 2 to over 753 thousands worldwide over the ten years. Many countries and private enterprises hold extremely high hopes for electric transport, predicting the imminent abandonment of the internal combustion engines (ICE). Our research shows that in 2018 EVs are yet still unable to compete on equal footing with conventional cars. However, should government and auto manufacturers maintain the current pace of development, true competitiveness between ICE and electric vehicles can be achieved by 2035 even in the low-oil-price environment. Our calculations indicate that by 2040, depending on the scenario, the EVs can secure an 11–28% share of the global road transport fleet. This will lead to an additional increase in global electricity consumption of 11–20%. The challenge, however, is the adaptation of power grid to the growing demand peaks due to EVs charging patterns. To maintain the course on “green” energy, global leaders in EV adoption need to double the efforts on development and implementation of energy storage technologies, otherwise, the spread of electric cars will lead to more fossil fuel consumption. © 2019 Elsevier Ltd Citation statistics:
资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/167260
Appears in Collections: 气候变化与战略
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作者单位: The Department of Research of Energy Complex of Russia and the World, The Energy Research Institute of the Russian Academy of Sciences, Nagornaya st., 31, k.2Moscow 117186, Russian Federation
Recommended Citation:
Kapustin N.O.,Grushevenko D.A.. Long-term electric vehicles outlook and their potential impact on electric grid[J]. Energy Policy,2020-01-01,137