DOI: 10.1016/j.enpol.2020.111813
论文题名: Assessing Alternative Investment Policies in a Resource-Rich Capital-Scarce Country: Results from a DSGE analysis for Iran
作者: Sayadi M. ; Khoshkalam Khosroshahi M.
刊名: Energy Policy
ISSN: 03014215
出版年: 2020
卷: 146 语种: 英语
中文关键词: DSGE Model
; Fiscal rule
; Investment inefficiency
; Non-oil GDP
; Oil revenue
; Resource-rich country
英文关键词: Budget control
; Developing countries
; Economics
; Natural resources
; Sensitivity analysis
; Taxation
; Budget deficits
; Future generations
; Investment policies
; Macroeconomic variables
; Private sectors
; Public investments
; Public sector
; Total investment
; Investments
; capital
; financial policy
; general equilibrium analysis
; Gross Domestic Product
; investment
; oil supply
; resource economy
; Iran
; Aves
英文摘要: This study mainly aims to assess the impact of an oil revenue shock on Iran's macroeconomic variables using a New Keynesian DSGE model as well as considering some main resource-rich developing countries characteristics such as capital scarcity, government's dominance in the economy, and public investment inefficiencies features. Here, the macroeconomic outcomes of implementing an alternative fiscal rule, namely, modified Bird-in-Hand (MBIH), in which both the development of infrastructures and future generations needs are taken into account are investigated and compared with the fiscal rule of the base scenario. The results are considered in four directions: First, an oil revenue increase shock causes the macroeconomic variables to rise in both scenarios, but the variables private-sector production, consumption, total investment, and non-oil GDP have a more increase under the MBIH scenario. Second, oil revenue accumulation in the oil fund under the MBIH scenario is significantly more than that in the base scenario. Third, government budget deficit experiences a higher increase, and public sector production experiences a less rise under the MBIH scenario. Fourth, the sensitivity analysis of public investment inefficiency shows that this factor acts as a serious barrier to the realization of the government's investment goals. Therefore, performing the first-best (MBIH) fiscal rule entails the reduction of the government's budget dependency on oil revenues through expanding the tax base, improving the public investment efficiency, and shrinking the public sector. © 2020 Elsevier Ltd Citation statistics:
资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/167465
Appears in Collections: 气候变化与战略
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作者单位: Department of Energy Economics & Resources, Faculty of Economics, Kharazmi University, No. 43, Taleghani Ave, Postal Code, Tehran, 15719-14911, Iran; Department of Economics, Faculty of Social Sciences and Economics, Alzahra University, Sheikh Bahai Ave, Postal Code, Tehran, 19938-93973, Iran
Recommended Citation:
Sayadi M.,Khoshkalam Khosroshahi M.. Assessing Alternative Investment Policies in a Resource-Rich Capital-Scarce Country: Results from a DSGE analysis for Iran[J]. Energy Policy,2020-01-01,146