DOI: 10.1016/j.enpol.2020.111692
论文题名: The impact of Nord Stream 2 on the European gas market bargaining positions
作者: Sziklai B.R. ; Kóczy L.Á. ; Csercsik D.
刊名: Energy Policy
ISSN: 03014215
出版年: 2020
卷: 144 语种: 英语
中文关键词: Bargaining power
; Cooperative games
; Gas supply
; Nord Stream
; Pipeline network
; Shapley value
英文关键词: Commerce
; Gases
; Iterative methods
; Linear programming
; Liquefied natural gas
; Cooperative game
; European gas markets
; Linear programs
; Long-term bilateral contracts
; Modelling techniques
; Pipeline networks
; Southern Europe
; Western Europe
; Pipelines
; bargaining
; cost analysis
; energy market
; European Union
; gas pipeline
; liquefied natural gas
; profitability
; Norway
; Russian Federation
; Ukraine
英文摘要: We investigate the impact and the possible consequences of the construction of the Nord Stream 2 pipeline. We model the European gas network as a cooperative game between regions as players over the pipeline network. Our model offers several novelties compared to earlier cooperative studies. Firstly, we focus on cost saving rather than on the profits of cooperation. Secondly, we introduce liquefied natural gas as a player. Thirdly, we apply an iterative linear program to account for the long term bilateral contracts that still drive the gas market. This modelling technique also allows us to identify individual gas flows. We focus on the change of influence of the players in three different scenarios. We investigate how the power of the agents shift when the Nord Stream pipeline is expanded, when the Ukrainian pipeline is shut down and finally when both of these happen. Our calculations show that when Nord Stream 2 is operational, Russia and Western Europe improve their position compared to the base scenario, while other suppliers, notably Norway, together with Central- Eastern- and Southern Europe suffer losses, especially when the Ukrainian route is dismissed. The results highlight that both the supporters and adversaries of Nord Stream 2 are governed by self-interest and solidarity and trust, the values proclaimed by the EU and the Energy Union, remain but a slogan. © 2020 The Authors Citation statistics:
资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/167507
Appears in Collections: 气候变化与战略
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作者单位: Institute of Economics, Centre for Economic and Regional Studies, Hungary; Department of Finance, Budapest University of Technology and Economics, Hungary; Department of Operations Research and Actuarial Sciences, Corvinus University of Budapest, Hungary; Faculty of Information Technology and Bionics, Pázmány Péter Catholic University, Hungary
Recommended Citation:
Sziklai B.R.,Kóczy L.Á.,Csercsik D.. The impact of Nord Stream 2 on the European gas market bargaining positions[J]. Energy Policy,2020-01-01,144