DOI: 10.1016/j.enpol.2020.111748
论文题名: Rerouting Europe's gas transit landscape - Effects of Russian natural gas infrastructure strategy on the V4
作者: Tóth B.T. ; Kotek P. ; Selei A.
刊名: Energy Policy
ISSN: 03014215
出版年: 2020
卷: 146 语种: 英语
中文关键词: Gas market modelling
; Gas transit
; Geopolitics
; Russia
; V4
; Welfare analysis
英文关键词: Commerce
; Costs
; Investments
; Current share
; European gas markets
; Export strategies
; Investment costs
; Landscape effects
; Market modelling
; Natural gas infrastructure
; Transit scenarios
; Gases
; energy market
; export
; gas supply
; infrastructure
; investment
; natural gas
; security
; Russian Federation
英文摘要: The Russian gas transit through Ukraine and the possibility of circumnavigating the historically dominant route poses a serious challenge to European gas markets. With the application of market modelling tools, this paper examines Russian export strategies to Europe using different transit route combinations. Although the cessation of Ukrainian transit would not endanger the security of gas supply in Europe, it would result in higher prices in all scenarios. In scenarios that include Nord Stream 2 and TurkStream 2, Ukrainian transit is non-essential for Russia to maintain its current share of EU gas imports. At the same time, the results show that limiting Ukrainian transit is less profitable for Russia: even if all the planned infrastructure is completed, shutting this route would result in losses of close to 5 billion € per year in Russian gas sales. Since it appears inevitable that Nord Stream 2 and TurkStream 2 will be built, a no transit scenario is a real possibility thereafter. In this case the V4 should lobby for Balkan Stream, with investment costs borne by Gazprom. However, if there are continued deliveries via Ukraine there is no need for Balkan Stream. © 2020 Elsevier Ltd Citation statistics:
资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/167526
Appears in Collections: 气候变化与战略
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作者单位: REKK, Corvinus University of Budapest, Budapest Fővám Tér 81093, Hungary
Recommended Citation:
Tóth B.T.,Kotek P.,Selei A.. Rerouting Europe's gas transit landscape - Effects of Russian natural gas infrastructure strategy on the V4[J]. Energy Policy,2020-01-01,146