globalchange  > 气候变化与战略
DOI: 10.1016/j.enpol.2020.112119
论文题名:
Estimating the impacts of climate change on electricity supply infrastructure: A case study of China
作者: Chen H.; Liu S.; Liu Q.; Shi X.; Wei W.; Han R.; Küfeoğlu S.
刊名: Energy Policy
ISSN: 03014215
出版年: 2021
卷: 150
语种: 英语
中文关键词: China ; Climate change ; Electricity supply infrastructure ; Temperature
英文关键词: Climate models ; Cost benefit analysis ; Economic and social effects ; Outages ; Climate change impact ; Climate system model ; Integrated modeling ; Policies and measures ; Reliable power supply ; Surface temperatures ; Transformer ratings ; Transmission and distribution ; Climate change ; climate change ; climate effect ; climate modeling ; cost-benefit analysis ; electricity supply ; estimation method ; infrastructure ; surface temperature ; China
英文摘要: Understanding the impacts of climate change on electricity supply infrastructure (ESI) is important to maintain a reliable power supply. Nonetheless, most existing studies focus on the physical impacts rather than the economic impacts, failing to provide references for the cost-benefit analysis of different abatement policies and measures. With this motivation, this study firstly employs a downscaled climate system model to project temperature paths in the future. Then, an integrated model is established to quantify both physical and economic impacts of long-term future temperature rise on the existing ESI components. Finally, the maximum climate-attributable impacts on China's ESI are assessed for the period from 2018 to 2099. Our major findings are that: (1) 10.2% of the generator ratings, 17.8% of the transmission and distribution line ratings and 10.0% of the transformer ratings are at risk of outage from expected climate change effects. (2) Around $258 billion of the existing ESI assets are at risk of outage due to the future surface temperature rise, representing 14.2% of the ESI assets in 2017. (3) The impacts of climate change on ESI vary substantially among different provinces and among different infrastructure components. These obtained results can provide important guidance for the mitigation and adaption strategies for the climate change impacts on the electricity sector. © 2020 Elsevier Ltd
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资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/167725
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作者单位: School of Applied Economics, Renmin University of China, Beijing, 100872, China; Energy Policy Research Group, University of Cambridge, Cambridge, CB2 1AG, United Kingdom; School of Economics and Management, China University of Geosciences, Wuhan, 430074, China; National Climate Center, China Meteorological Administration, Beijing, 100081, China; School of International and Public Affairs, Shanghai Jiao Tong University, Shanghai, 200030, China; Center for Energy and Environmental Policy Research, Beijing Institute of Technology, Beijing, 100081, China; Department of Industrial Engineering, Istanbul Technical University, Istanbul, 34467, Turkey; Department of Energy Systems Engineering, Bahcesehir University, Istanbul, 34349, Turkey

Recommended Citation:
Chen H.,Liu S.,Liu Q.,et al. Estimating the impacts of climate change on electricity supply infrastructure: A case study of China[J]. Energy Policy,2021-01-01,150
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