DOI: 10.1016/j.enpol.2020.111992
论文题名: A dynamic model to formulate effective capacity expansion policies in Iranian petrochemical Industry to complete the value chain
作者: Hajiebrahimi Farashah V. ; Sazvar Z. ; Hosseini S.H.
刊名: Energy Policy
ISSN: 03014215
出版年: 2021
卷: 148 语种: 英语
中文关键词: Capacity expansion
; Petrochemical industry
; Scenario analysis
; System dynamics
; Value chain
英文摘要: The petrochemical industry plays a pivotal role in achieving high value-added products from oil and gas reserves. With attention to oil and gas reserves in Iran, it is clear that the petrochemical industry has not grown up adequately. This study aims to determine effective factors on petrochemical industry development and model the mechanism of capacity expansion budget creation using a system dynamics approach. A quantified system dynamics model has been built based on causal relationships and the mechanism of development budget allocation among categorized products. This structure is used to simulate the model and investigate essential variables related to each product, such as production capacity value, production rate, domestic sale revenue, and export. According to the results of a simulation, in 2025, Iran will have a capacity of approximately 104 million tons of petrochemical products that is not desirable. In this study, a policy of improving budget plan and allocation is introduced as the most effective solution to achieve the petrochemical industry development. By implementing this policy the production capacity and total revenue would respectively be improved by 4% and 13% in 2025 in comparison with the base run. © 2020 Elsevier Ltd Citation statistics:
资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/167802
Appears in Collections: 气候变化与战略
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作者单位: School of Industrial Engineering, College of Engineering, University of Tehran, Tehran, Iran; Model-Based Management Systems Institute (SAMAM), Tehran, Iran
Recommended Citation:
Hajiebrahimi Farashah V.,Sazvar Z.,Hosseini S.H.. A dynamic model to formulate effective capacity expansion policies in Iranian petrochemical Industry to complete the value chain[J]. Energy Policy,2021-01-01,148