| DOI: | 10.1016/j.enpol.2021.112365
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| 论文题名: | Model evaluation for policy insights: Reflections on the forum process |
| 作者: | Huntington H.G.
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| 刊名: | Energy Policy
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| ISSN: | 03014215
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| 出版年: | 2021
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| 卷: | 156 | | 语种: | 英语
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| 中文关键词: | Energy policymaking
; Model comparison
; Model evaluation
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| 英文关键词: | Energy modelling
; Energy policymaking
; Forecasting tools
; Keys parameters
; Model evaluation
; Modeling complexity
; Models comparisons
; Multi-model
; Simple modeling
; Energy policy
; comparative study
; energy policy
; modeling
; policy making
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| 英文摘要: | Model evaluation is best considered as a process for communicating with the policymaking or policy-advising community. Six decades of energy modelling have witnessed increasing complexity in these systems, a situation that raises a number of important challenges in using them effectively in policymaking organizations. When used as a learning rather than forecasting tool, these systems can be evaluated individually one by one or through joint efforts to compare them in multi-model exercises. After summarizing the evolution of energy modelling and efforts to evaluate them since the first oil embargo, this essay provides a guide to future evaluation collaborations by highlighting a few challenges that would improve the value of these studies for the policymaking community. These challenges range broadly and cover topics such as enhancing the engagement of the model user, ventilating the models’ complexity with intuitive insights, using simple models to demonstrate key parameters or responses, applying judicious occasional meta-analysis when there is value added, reporting model responses and calibrating them for decisionmakers, considering retrospective evaluation for a past period (when possible), selecting standardized or modeler-choice baseline conditions, selectively developing policy or diagnostic alternative cases, and institutionalising the model evaluation process for a specific topic or region. © 2021 Elsevier Ltd |
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| 资源类型: | 期刊论文
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| 标识符: | http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/167838
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| Appears in Collections: | 气候变化与战略
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作者单位: | Energy Modeling Forum, Stanford University, United States
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| Recommended Citation: | |
Huntington H.G.. Model evaluation for policy insights: Reflections on the forum process[J]. Energy Policy,2021-01-01,156
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