globalchange  > 气候变化与战略
DOI: 10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2020.102195
论文题名:
Corrigendum to “Meeting the food security challenge for nine billion people in 2050: What impact on forests?” [Global Environ. Change 62 (2020) 102056] (Global Environmental Change (2020) 62, (S095937801930929X), (10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2020.102056))
作者: Bahar N.H.A.; Lo M.; Sanjaya M.; Van Vianen J.; Alexander P.; Ickowitz A.; Sunderland T.
刊名: Global Environmental Change
ISSN: 9593780
出版年: 2020
卷: 65
语种: 英语
英文摘要: As the world's population continues to grow, agricultural expansion is expected to increase to meet future food demand often at the expense of other land uses. However, there are limited studies examining the degree to which forest cover will change and the underlying assumptions driving these projections. Focusing on food and forest scenarios for the middle to the end of the current century, we review 63 main scenarios and 28 global modelling studies to address variations in land use projections and evaluate the potential outcomes on forest cover. Further, their potential impacts on greenhouse gases (GHG) emission/sequestration and global temperature are explored. A majority (59%) of scenarios expected a reduction in both forests and pasturelands to make way for agricultural expansion (particularly reference and no mitigation scenarios). In most scenarios, the extent of forest loss is proportional to that of crop gain, which is associated with higher GHG emission and global temperature, loss of carbon sequestration potential and increase in soil erosion. However, 32% of scenarios predicted that meeting food security objectives is possible without leading to further deforestation if there is a global reduction in the demand for energy intensive foods, and improvements in crop yields. Forest gain and lower rates of deforestation are needed to achieve ambitious climate targets over the next decade. Our analysis also highlights carbon taxes (prices), reforestation/afforestation and bioenergy as important variables that can contribute to maintaining or increasing global forest area in the future. © 2020 The Author(s)
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资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/168132
Appears in Collections:气候变化与战略

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作者单位: Center for International Forestry Research, Jalan CIFOR, Situ Gede, Sindang Barang, Bogor (Barat), 16115, Indonesia; Tropical Rainforest Conservation and Research Centre, Lot 2900 & 2901 Jalan 7/71B, Pinggiran Taman Tun Dr Ismail, Kuala Lumpur, 60000, Malaysia; Global Academy of Agriculture and Food Security, The University of Edinburgh, Easter Bush Campus, Midlothian, EH25 9RG, United Kingdom; Faculty of Forestry, University of British Columbia, 2424 Main Mall, Vancouver, BC V6T 1Z4, Canada; Durrell Institute of Conservation and Ecology (DICE), University of Kent, Canterbury, CT2 7NR, United Kingdom

Recommended Citation:
Bahar N.H.A.,Lo M.,Sanjaya M.,et al. Corrigendum to “Meeting the food security challenge for nine billion people in 2050: What impact on forests?” [Global Environ. Change 62 (2020) 102056] (Global Environmental Change (2020) 62, (S095937801930929X), (10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2020.102056))[J]. Global Environmental Change,2020-01-01,65
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