DOI: 10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2019.102009
论文题名: The safe development paradox: An agent-based model for flood risk under climate change in the European Union
作者: Haer T. ; Husby T.G. ; Botzen W.J.W. ; Aerts J.C.J.H.
刊名: Global Environmental Change
ISSN: 9593780
出版年: 2020
卷: 60 语种: 英语
中文关键词: Adaptation policy
; Agent-based model
; Extreme events
; Flood risk
; Levee effect
; Safe development paradox
英文关键词: adaptive management
; climate change
; economic activity
; European Union
; extreme event
; flash flood
; flood
; flood control
; levee
; model
; population growth
; risk assessment
英文摘要: With increasing flood risk due to climate change and socioeconomic trends, governments are under pressure to continue implementing flood protection measures, such as dikes, to reduce flood risk. However, research suggests that a sole focus on government-funded flood protection leads to an adverse increase in exposure as people and economic activities tend to concentrate in protected areas. Moreover, governmental flood protection can reduce the incentive for autonomous adaptation by local households, which paradoxically results in more severe consequences if an extreme flood event occurs. This phenomenon is often referred to as the ‘safe development paradox’ or ‘levee effect’ and is generally not accounted for in existing flood risk models used to assess developments in future flood risk under climate change. In this study we assess the impact of extreme flood events for the European Union using a large-scale agent-based model (ABM). We quantify how the safe development paradox affects (1) population growth and the increase in exposed property values, (2) the reduction in investments to flood-proof buildings as public protection increases, and (3) the increase in potential damage should a flood occur. For this analysis, we apply an ABM that integrates the dynamic behaviour of governments and residents into a large-scale flood risk assessment framework, in which we include estimates of changing population growth. We find that the impact of extreme flood events increases considerably when governments provide high protection levels, especially in large metropolitan areas. Moreover, we demonstrate how policy that stimulates the flood-proofing of buildings can largely counteract the effects of the safe development paradox. © 2019 Elsevier Ltd Citation statistics:
资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/168175
Appears in Collections: 气候变化与战略
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作者单位: Institute for Environmental Studies, Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam, De Boelelaan 1087, Amsterdam, 1081HV, Netherlands; Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency (PBL), The Hague, Netherlands; Utrecht University School of Economics (U.S.E.), Utrecht University, Utrecht, Netherlands; Risk Management and Decision Processes Centre, The Wharton School, University of Pennsylvania, United States
Recommended Citation:
Haer T.,Husby T.G.,Botzen W.J.W.,et al. The safe development paradox: An agent-based model for flood risk under climate change in the European Union[J]. Global Environmental Change,2020-01-01,60