DOI: 10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2020.102034
论文题名: Growing stocks of buildings, infrastructures and machinery as key challenge for compliance with climate targets
作者: Krausmann F. ; Wiedenhofer D. ; Haberl H.
刊名: Global Environmental Change
ISSN: 9593780
出版年: 2020
卷: 61 语种: 英语
中文关键词: Climate-change mitigation
; Low-carbon living
; Material and energy flow analysis
; Material stocks
; Social metabolism
; SSP scenario
英文关键词: building
; climate change
; compliance
; environmental economics
; global warming
; greenhouse gas
; Gross Domestic Product
; international agreement
; machinery
; material flow analysis
英文摘要: Drastic reductions of greenhouse-gas (GHG) emissions are required to meet the goal of the 2015 Paris climate accord to limit global warming to 1.5–2.0 °C over pre-industrial levels. We introduce the material stock-flow framework as a novel way to develop scenarios for future GHG emissions using methods from social metabolism research. The basic assumption behind our exploratory scenario approach is that nearly all final energy is required to either expand and maintain stocks of buildings, infrastructures and machinery or to provide services by using them. Distinguishing three country groups, we develop GDP- and population-driven scenarios for the development of these material stocks and the corresponding energy requirements based on historically calibrated model parameters. We analyze the results assuming different future pathways of CO2 emissions per unit of primary energy. The resulting cumulative carbon emissions from 2018 to 2050 range from 361 Gt C in the lower GDP-driven to 568 GtC in the higher population-driven scenario. The findings from the population-driven scenarios point towards the huge implications of a hypothetical convergence of per-capita levels of material stocks assuming current trajectories of technological improvements. Results indicate that providing essential services with a considerably lower level of material stocks could contribute to large reductions in global resource demand and GHG emissions. A comparison of different stock levels in 2050 demonstrates that complying with ambitious climate targets requires much faster declines of CO2 emissions per unit of primary energy if growth of material stocks is not limited. © 2020 The Authors Citation statistics:
资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/168191
Appears in Collections: 气候变化与战略
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作者单位: Department of Economics and Social Sciences (WiSo), Institute of Social Ecology (SEC), University of Natural Resources & Life Sciences, Schottenfeldgasse 29, Vienna, 1070, Austria
Recommended Citation:
Krausmann F.,Wiedenhofer D.,Haberl H.. Growing stocks of buildings, infrastructures and machinery as key challenge for compliance with climate targets[J]. Global Environmental Change,2020-01-01,61