DOI: 10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2020.102191
论文题名: Anticipating futures through models: the rise of Integrated Assessment Modelling in the climate science-policy interface since 1970
作者: van Beek L. ; Hajer M. ; Pelzer P. ; van Vuuren D. ; Cassen C.
刊名: Global Environmental Change
ISSN: 9593780
出版年: 2020
卷: 65 语种: 英语
中文关键词: Global climate policy-making
; Institutional work
; Integrated assessment modelling
; Science-policy interface
英文关键词: annual review
; demand analysis
; future prospect
; integrated approach
; questionnaire survey
; reconstruction
; stakeholder
英文摘要: Integrated Assessment Models (IAMs) have gained a prominent role in the climate science-policy interface. The article reconstructs the evolution of IAMs and their changing role in this interface, investigating how and why IAMs have become so prominent. Based on literature analysis, quantitative document analysis and semi-structured interviews, we describe the historic evolution of the interactions between IAMs and policy-making between 1970 and 2015. We identify five historic phases in which IAMs played distinct mediating roles between science and policy, succeeding to adjust their scenario efforts to the continuously changing demands for knowledge from the policy community. In explaining the prominent role of IAMs, we differentiate between background conditions (material and sociological) and more contextual factors, most notably the flexible, hybrid and broad nature of IAMs as well as the pro-active character of the IAM community to enhance their policy relevance. We draw on the notion of institutional work to explain this success. In light of the urgency of responding to the climate crisis, we suggest that the IAM community may expand their scope of anticipated futures and consider engaging a wider range of publics and societal stakeholders beyond the science-policy interface. © 2020 The Author(s) Citation statistics:
资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/168244
Appears in Collections: 气候变化与战略
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作者单位: Copernicus Institute of Sustainable Development, Utrecht University, Utrecht, Netherlands; Urban Futures Studio, Utrecht University, Utrecht, Netherlands; Department of Human Geography and Spatial Planning, Faculty of Geoscience, Utrecht University, Netherlands; PBL Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency, The Hague, Netherlands; Centre International de Recherche sur l'Environnement et le Développement (CIRED), CNRS, France
Recommended Citation:
van Beek L.,Hajer M.,Pelzer P.,et al. Anticipating futures through models: the rise of Integrated Assessment Modelling in the climate science-policy interface since 1970[J]. Global Environmental Change,2020-01-01,65