DOI: 10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2021.102307
论文题名: A conceptual framework for cross-border impacts of climate change
作者: Carter T.R. ; Benzie M. ; Campiglio E. ; Carlsen H. ; Fronzek S. ; Hildén M. ; Reyer C.P.O. ; West C.
刊名: Global Environmental Change
ISSN: 9593780
出版年: 2021
卷: 69 语种: 英语
中文关键词: Adaptation
; Cascading impacts
; Climate trigger
; Complex system
; Response
; Risk propagation
英文关键词: adaptive management
; climate change
; climate effect
; complexity
; conceptual framework
; environmental factor
; industrial production
; nature-society relations
; sea ice
; socioeconomic conditions
; strategic approach
; Thailand
英文摘要: Climate change impacts, adaptation and vulnerability studies tend to confine their attention to impacts and responses within the same geographical region. However, this approach ignores cross-border climate change impacts that occur remotely from the location of their initial impact and that may severely disrupt societies and livelihoods. We propose a conceptual framework and accompanying nomenclature for describing and analysing such cross-border impacts. The conceptual framework distinguishes an initial impact that is caused by a climate trigger within a specific region. Downstream consequences of that impact propagate through an impact transmission system while adaptation responses to deal with the impact propagate through a response transmission system. A key to understanding cross-border impacts and responses is a recognition of different types of climate triggers, categories of cross-border impacts, the scales and dynamics of impact transmission, the targets and dynamics of responses and the socio-economic and environmental context that also encompasses factors and processes unrelated to climate change. These insights can then provide a basis for identifying relevant causal relationships. We apply the framework to the floods that affected industrial production in Thailand in 2011, and to projected Arctic sea ice decline, and demonstrate that the framework can usefully capture the complex system dynamics of cross-border climate impacts. It also provides a useful mechanism to identify and understand adaptation strategies and their potential consequences in the wider context of resilience planning. The cross-border dimensions of climate impacts could become increasingly important as climate changes intensify. We conclude that our framework will allow for these to be properly accounted for, help to identify new areas of empirical and model-based research and thereby support climate risk management. © 2021 The Author(s) Citation statistics:
资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/168271
Appears in Collections: 气候变化与战略
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作者单位: Finnish Environment Institute (SYKE), Latokartanonkaari 11, Helsinki, FI-00790, Finland; Stockholm Environment Institute (SEI), Linnégatan 87D, Stockholm, 115 23, Sweden; Department of Social Sciences, Wageningen University, Hollandseweg 1, Wageningen, 6706KN, Netherlands; Department of Economics, University of Bologna, Piazza Scaravilli 2, Bologna, 40126, Italy; Potsdam Institute for Climate Change Research (PIK), Member of the Leibniz Association, Telegrafenberg, P.O. Box 601203, Potsdam, 14412, Germany; Stockholm Environment Institute (SEI) - York Centre, Department of Environment and Geography, University of York, YO10 5NG, YO10 5NG
Recommended Citation:
Carter T.R.,Benzie M.,Campiglio E.,et al. A conceptual framework for cross-border impacts of climate change[J]. Global Environmental Change,2021-01-01,69