| DOI: | 10.1007/s11069-020-04062-0
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| 论文题名: | Inconsistencies in Yangtze River annual maxima analyses |
| 作者: | Bardsley E.
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| 刊名: | Natural Hazards
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| ISSN: | 0921030X
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| 出版年: | 2020
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| 卷: | 103, 期:2 | | 起始页码: | 2613
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| 结束页码: | 2615
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| 语种: | 英语
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| 中文关键词: | Annual flow maxima
; Estimation errors
; GEV fitting
; Three Gorges Dam
; Yangtze River
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| 英文关键词: | annual variation
; error analysis
; hydrological modeling
; parameter estimation
; probability
; river discharge
; China
; Yangtze River
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| 英文摘要: | Yangtze River annual maxima data are available for 1877–1981, for Yichang near the Three Gorges Dam. However, subsequent annual maxima seem not available outside China. Therefore, published methodologies applied to Yangtze discharge maxima cannot always be checked independently against data, despite papers appearing in international journals. The point is illustrated with respect to apparent anomalies in parameter estimation for the generalised extreme value distribution (GEV) applied to Yichang annual maxima. Specifically, Wang et al. (Stoch Environ Res Risk Assess 31: 2281–2296, 2017) list GEV parameter estimates derived from the period 1890–2000. These parameter values give underfit of all Yichang annual maxima between 1877 and 1981. In contrast, the GEV parameter estimates of Sutcliffe (J Hydrol 96: 159–171) paper give better data fits. It may be that the underfit is related to the proposed methodology, which should then be treated with caution. Alternatively, there may be just a typographical error in a listed parameter value. Whatever the cause, the point is made that it would be helpful to have complete time series of hydrological data from China to confirm published analyses. © 2020, Springer Nature B.V. |
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| 资源类型: | 期刊论文
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| 标识符: | http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/168393
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| Appears in Collections: | 气候变化与战略
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作者单位: | Faculty of Science and Engineering, University of Waikato, Private Bag 3105, Hamilton, 3240, New Zealand
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| Recommended Citation: | |
Bardsley E.. Inconsistencies in Yangtze River annual maxima analyses[J]. Natural Hazards,2020-01-01,103(2)
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