DOI: 10.1007/s11069-020-03891-3
论文题名: Reconstruction of a flash flood event using a 2D hydrodynamic model under spatial and temporal variability of storm
作者: Bellos V. ; Papageorgaki I. ; Kourtis I. ; Vangelis H. ; Kalogiros I. ; Tsakiris G.
刊名: Natural Hazards
ISSN: 0921030X
出版年: 2020
卷: 101, 期: 3 起始页码: 711
结束页码: 726
语种: 英语
中文关键词: 2D hydrodynamic model
; Catchment scale
; Flash flood
; Flood reconstruction
; Hydrograph
; Mandra (Attica)
英文关键词: accuracy assessment
; catastrophic event
; flash flood
; flow modeling
; hydrodynamics
; reconstruction
; spatial variation
; storm
; temporal variation
; two-dimensional modeling
; uncertainty analysis
; Attica
; Greece
英文摘要: In this paper, the catastrophic flash flood event which occurred in the western part of Attica (Greece) in November 2017 is reconstructed. The flood event hit the town of Mandra, causing 24 fatalities and huge damages in the properties and the infrastructure. The flood hydrograph was derived using the two-dimensional hydrodynamic model FLOW-R2D. Attention was drawn on the uncertainties of the model output due to the uncertainty of the estimated parameters such as infiltration, friction and the uncertainty of input data. Due to the computational burden related to the model, a global sensitivity analysis based on Morris method was performed. Then, a Monte Carlo-based uncertainty analysis was performed on the two most influential factors. It was concluded that even the results of the physically based hydrodynamic models are characterised by uncertainties. However, the capability of the hydrodynamic models to describe in detail the dynamics of the overland flow is the main advantage of these models against the conventional hydrological models. It is concluded that the rational use of physically based models for analysing complex storm phenomena with high variable spatial and temporal distribution can lead to a more accurate range of magnitudes of flood peak. © 2020, Springer Nature B.V. Citation statistics:
资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/168401
Appears in Collections: 气候变化与战略
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作者单位: Laboratory of Reclamation Works and Water Resources Management and Centre for the Assessment of Natural Hazards and Proactive Planning, School of Rural and Surveying Engineering, National Technical University of Athens, Athens, Greece; Institute for Environmental Research and Sustainable Development, National Observatory of Athens, Athens, Greece
Recommended Citation:
Bellos V.,Papageorgaki I.,Kourtis I.,et al. Reconstruction of a flash flood event using a 2D hydrodynamic model under spatial and temporal variability of storm[J]. Natural Hazards,2020-01-01,101(3)