globalchange  > 气候变化与战略
DOI: 10.1007/s11069-019-03810-1
论文题名:
Investigating relationship between drought severity in Botswana and ENSO
作者: Byakatonda J.; Parida B.P.; Moalafhi D.B.; Kenabatho P.K.; Lesolle D.
刊名: Natural Hazards
ISSN: 0921030X
出版年: 2020
卷: 100, 期:1
起始页码: 255
结束页码: 278
语种: 英语
中文关键词: Drought vulnerability ; Early warning ; El Niño ; Pearson’s correlation ; Standardized Precipitation Evaporation Index
英文关键词: air-sea interaction ; correlation ; drought ; early warning system ; El Nino-Southern Oscillation ; evaporation ; numerical model ; precipitation (climatology) ; standardization ; Botswana
英文摘要: Influences of El Niño southern oscillation (ENSO) on weather systems have increased the frequency and amplitude of extreme events over the last century. This even continues to exacerbate the already warming earth, with 2014–2016 which coincided with the strongest El Niño years observed as the warmest period in recent past. This study presents an approach of characterizing droughts at various timescales and establishes teleconnections between ENSO and drought severity in Botswana. The study uses Standardized Precipitation Evaporation Index (SPEI) at timescales of 1, 3, 6, 12 and 24 month to characterize droughts and Pearson’s correlations to study the teleconnections between SPEIs and ENSO. Results from the study reveal that extreme droughts are a rare occurrence in Botswana though it is more prone to moderate droughts at 12 month SPEI with a probability of 19% in the north. The highest severe drought probability was 7% recorded in the east. Linear trends indicate increasing dryness of around 0.8% per decade. These results have demonstrated that warm sea surface temperatures combined with negative Southern Oscillation Index correspond to persistent negative SPEI values and thus are likely to result in dry conditions. Significant correlations were observed in the mid austral summer in December and January. Due to this relationship, the drought early warning systems could use ENSO as one of the instruments for predicting drought over the study area and hence in its management. © 2019, Springer Nature B.V.
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资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/168412
Appears in Collections:气候变化与战略

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作者单位: Department of Biosystems Engineering, Gulu University, P.O Box 166, Gulu, Uganda; Department of Civil Engineering, University of Botswana, P/Bag 0061, Gaborone, Botswana; Department of Environmental Science, University of Botswana, P/Bag 00704, Gaborone, Botswana

Recommended Citation:
Byakatonda J.,Parida B.P.,Moalafhi D.B.,et al. Investigating relationship between drought severity in Botswana and ENSO[J]. Natural Hazards,2020-01-01,100(1)
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