DOI: 10.1007/s11069-020-04273-5
论文题名: Addressing uncertainty in extreme rainfall intensity for semi-arid urban regions: case study of Delhi, India
作者: Chaudhuri R.R. ; Sharma P.
刊名: Natural Hazards
ISSN: 0921030X
出版年: 2020
卷: 104, 期: 3 起始页码: 2307
结束页码: 2324
语种: 英语
中文关键词: Bayesian
; Delhi
; Extreme rainfall
; Semi-arid
; Short duration
; Uncertainty
英文关键词: Bayesian analysis
; extreme event
; precipitation assessment
; precipitation intensity
; prediction
; semiarid region
; uncertainty analysis
; Delhi
; India
英文摘要: Classical approaches are used to develop rainfall intensity duration frequency curves for the estimation of design rainfall intensities corresponding to various return periods. The study modelled extreme rainfall intensities at different durations and compared the classical Gumbel and generalized extreme value (GEV) distributions in semi-arid urban region. The model and parameter uncertainties are translated to uncertainties in design storm estimates. A broader insight emerges that rainfall extremes in 1 h and 3 h are sensitive to the choice of frequency analysis (GEV in this case) and helps address anticipated intensification of extreme events for short duration at urban local scale. In comparison with Gumbel, GEV predicts higher extreme rainfall intensity corresponding to various return periods and duration (for 1-h duration the increase in extreme rainfall intensity is from 27 to 33% for return periods 10 years and higher, 3-h and 50-year return period—20%, 3-h and 100-year return period—20.6%, 24 h at similar return periods—10%). The Bayesian posterior distribution has a calibration effect on the GEV predictions and reduces the upper range of uncertainty in the GEV probability model prediction from a range of 16–31% to 10–28.4% for return period varying from 10 to 50 year for 1-h storms. In geographically similar areas these extreme intensities may be used to prepare for the rising flash flood risks. © 2020, Springer Nature B.V. Citation statistics:
资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/168424
Appears in Collections: 气候变化与战略
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作者单位: Department of Regional Water Studies, TERI School of Advanced Studies, 10, Institutional Area, Vasant Kun, New Delhi, 110070, India; Department of Energy and Environment, TERI School of Advanced Studies, 10, Institutional Area, Vasant Kunj, New Delhi, 110070, India
Recommended Citation:
Chaudhuri R.R.,Sharma P.. Addressing uncertainty in extreme rainfall intensity for semi-arid urban regions: case study of Delhi, India[J]. Natural Hazards,2020-01-01,104(3)