DOI: 10.1007/s11069-019-03815-w
论文题名: Early warning system for rainfall-triggered landslides based on real-time probabilistic hazard assessment
作者: Correa O. ; García F. ; Bernal G. ; Cardona O.D. ; Rodriguez C.
刊名: Natural Hazards
ISSN: 0921030X
出版年: 2020
卷: 100, 期: 1 起始页码: 345
结束页码: 361
语种: 英语
中文关键词: Landslides
; Probabilistic model
; Rainfall thresholds
; Warning systems
英文关键词: early warning system
; hazard assessment
; landslide
; probability
; rainfall
; real time
; trigger mechanism
; Caldas
; Colombia
; Manizales
英文摘要: A methodology to define rainfall-landslide thresholds, using a probabilistic model in which the accumulated rainfall at any time is treated as a random variable, is proposed. The region under study is divided into areas of homogeneous rain hazard. For each homogeneous area, a probability model is fitted using state-of-the-art statistical methods, for each accumulation time considered. Thresholds are obtained by the definition of confidence intervals. Instantaneous accumulated rains, measured in real-time, are used to calculate the instantaneous probabilities of a landslide at each area and accumulation time. The maximum instantaneous probability determines the critical accumulated rain and sets the issued warning level. In addition, the model is tested, retrospectively, with the data for the disaster of April 19, 2017, in Manizales, Colombia, where 38 rainfall-triggered landslides killed 17 people and affected more than 3126 families. © 2019, Springer Nature B.V. Citation statistics:
资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/168437
Appears in Collections: 气候变化与战略
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作者单位: Universidad Nacional de Colombia, Manizales, Colombia; Universidad Nacional de Colombia, Bogotá, Colombia
Recommended Citation:
Correa O.,García F.,Bernal G.,et al. Early warning system for rainfall-triggered landslides based on real-time probabilistic hazard assessment[J]. Natural Hazards,2020-01-01,100(1)