DOI: 10.1007/s11069-020-03854-8
论文题名: Aftershock probabilistic seismic hazard analysis for Bushehr province in Iran using ETAS model
作者: Davoudi N. ; Tavakoli H.R. ; Zare M. ; Jalilian A.
刊名: Natural Hazards
ISSN: 0921030X
出版年: 2020
卷: 100, 期: 3 起始页码: 1159
结束页码: 1170
语种: 英语
中文关键词: Aftershock
; Bushehr province of Iran
; ETAS model
; Mainshock
; Seismic hazard analysis
英文关键词: active fault
; aftershock
; earthquake catalogue
; earthquake magnitude
; hazard assessment
; seismic hazard
; seismic source
; Bushehr
; Iran
英文摘要: Aftershock probabilistic seismic hazard analysis (APSHA) has a key role in risk management after a major earthquake. The main goal of the current study is to assess aftershock hazard in a strategic and earthquake-prone region of Iran (Bushehr province). Bushehr province is a strategic region in the Middle East due to its major petroleum export facilities, industrial corridors and the Bushehr nuclear power plant. To prepare APSHA for Bushehr province, a seismic source is selected which surrounds the active faults in the study area. A uniform earthquake catalog is collected which contains information on a total of 1143 earthquakes (Mw > 4) occurred in the study area from 1900 to 2018. Aftershock parameters are calculated using the epidemic-type aftershock sequence model. Aftershock sequences follow a non-homogenous Poisson’s process, and their magnitude and location depend on the size and location of the mainshock. In this study, APSHA is performed for the intervals of 1, 7 and 30 days after the mainshock, by assuming occurrence of mainshocks with return periods of 475 and 2475 years. The results show that the aftershock hazard curve is greater than that of the mainshock hazard curve. © 2020, Springer Nature B.V. Citation statistics:
资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/168453
Appears in Collections: 气候变化与战略
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作者单位: Department of Civil Engineering, Babol Noshirvani University of Technology, Babol, Iran; Department of Seismology, International Institute of Earthquake Engineering and Seismology, Tehran, Iran; Department of Statistics, Razi University, Kermanshah, Iran
Recommended Citation:
Davoudi N.,Tavakoli H.R.,Zare M.,et al. Aftershock probabilistic seismic hazard analysis for Bushehr province in Iran using ETAS model[J]. Natural Hazards,2020-01-01,100(3)