DOI: 10.1007/s11069-020-04289-x
论文题名: An improved potential intensity estimate for Bay of Bengal tropical cyclones
作者: Glazer R.H. ; Ali M.M.
刊名: Natural Hazards
ISSN: 0921030X
出版年: 2020
卷: 104, 期: 3 起始页码: 2635
结束页码: 2644
语种: 英语
中文关键词: Bay of Bengal
; Potential intensity
; Tropical cyclones
英文关键词: cooling
; estimation method
; thermodynamics
; tropical cyclone
; weather forecasting
; wind shear
; Bay of Bengal
; Indian Ocean
英文摘要: The Bay of Bengal (BoB) is the most dangerous tropical cyclone (TC) region to humans in the world due to a combination of geographical and environmental factors. TC potential intensity (PI) estimates are a useful forecasting tool for evaluating favorable thermodynamic conditions for TC intensification; however, it assumes an idealized environment which omits several TC–environmental interactions. The present study compares the PI calculated using the SST (SST-PI) and the PI calculated taking into account ocean surface cooling and vertical wind shear (Environmental-PI) to the intensification rates of BoB TCs. A significant improvement is found in terms of explained variance when using Env-PI (13.5%) rather than SST-PI (3.5%). For slower moving TCs, the improvement is larger between Env-PI (25.5%) and SST-PI (4.9%). This study demonstrates that including an estimate of both oceanic and dynamical TC interactions in PI estimates lead to an improved estimate of future TC intensification in the BoB. © 2020, Springer Nature B.V. Citation statistics:
资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/168505
Appears in Collections: 气候变化与战略
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作者单位: Abdus Salam International Centre for Theoretical Physics, Trieste, Italy; Center for Ocean-Atmosphere Prediction Studies, Florida State University, Tallahassee, FL, United States; AP Disaster Management Authority, Kunchanapalli, India
Recommended Citation:
Glazer R.H.,Ali M.M.. An improved potential intensity estimate for Bay of Bengal tropical cyclones[J]. Natural Hazards,2020-01-01,104(3)