globalchange  > 气候变化与战略
DOI: 10.1007/s11069-020-04003-x
论文题名:
Mortality risk of a future heat event across a subtropical city: implications for community planning and health policy
作者: Ho H.C.; Wai K.M.; He M.; Chan T.-C.; Deng C.; Wong M.S.
刊名: Natural Hazards
ISSN: 0921030X
出版年: 2020
卷: 103, 期:1
起始页码: 623
结束页码: 637
语种: 英语
中文关键词: Community planning ; Extreme heat ; Policy implications ; Projected mortality ; Urban health risk ; WRF
英文关键词: air temperature ; climate change ; health policy ; heat wave ; local participation ; mortality risk ; subtropical region
英文摘要: In this study, we applied the Weather Research and Forecasting model to project 2050 urban and rural temperature. We applied a time-stratified analysis to compare it with mortality between 2001 and 2014 and between 2011 and 2014, to estimate the elevated risk of a 2050 heat event. We included change in daytime versus nighttime and urban versus rural temperatures as factors to project mortality, to evaluate the potential influence of climate change on mortality risk. Increases of 2.9 °C and 2.6 °C in maximum and minimum air temperature are projected in a 2050 heat event, with a day and a night that will have respective temperatures 9.8 °C and 4.9 °C higher than 2001–2014. Significantly higher mortality risk is forecasted in 2050 compared to 2001–2014 (IRR 1.721 [1.650, 1.796]) and 2011–2014 (IRR 1.622 [1.547, 1.701]) without consideration of temperature change. After consideration of changing temperature, change in maximum temperature in rural areas will induce the highest mortality risk during 2050, possibly due to rapid urbanization across the city, and with the second highest mortality risk induced by the change in minimum temperature in urbanized areas, possibly because local people in the city have been adapted to the maximum level of urban thermal stress during a summer day. Improvements to heat warning systems and sustainable planning protocols are urgently needed for climate change mitigation. © 2020, Springer Nature B.V.
Citation statistics:
资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/168524
Appears in Collections:气候变化与战略

Files in This Item:

There are no files associated with this item.


作者单位: Department of Urban Planning and Design, The University of Hong Kong, Pok Fu Lam, Hong Kong; College of Engineering, Shantou University, Shantou, China; Institute of Environment, Energy and Sustainability, Chinese University of Hong Kong, Sha Tin, Hong Kong; Research Center for Humanities and Social Sciences, Academia Sinica, Taipei City, Taiwan; Department of Geography, State University of New York at Binghamton, Binghamton, United States; Department of Land Surveying and Geo-Informatics, The Hong Kong Polytechnic University, Hung Hom, Hong Kong; Research Institute for Sustainable Urban Development, The Hong Kong Polytechnic University, Hung Hom, Hong Kong

Recommended Citation:
Ho H.C.,Wai K.M.,He M.,et al. Mortality risk of a future heat event across a subtropical city: implications for community planning and health policy[J]. Natural Hazards,2020-01-01,103(1)
Service
Recommend this item
Sava as my favorate item
Show this item's statistics
Export Endnote File
Google Scholar
Similar articles in Google Scholar
[Ho H.C.]'s Articles
[Wai K.M.]'s Articles
[He M.]'s Articles
百度学术
Similar articles in Baidu Scholar
[Ho H.C.]'s Articles
[Wai K.M.]'s Articles
[He M.]'s Articles
CSDL cross search
Similar articles in CSDL Cross Search
[Ho H.C.]‘s Articles
[Wai K.M.]‘s Articles
[He M.]‘s Articles
Related Copyright Policies
Null
收藏/分享
所有评论 (0)
暂无评论
 

Items in IR are protected by copyright, with all rights reserved, unless otherwise indicated.