DOI: 10.1007/s11069-020-03900-5
论文题名: Trends in cooling and heating degree-days overtimes in Bangladesh? An investigation of the possible causes of changes
作者: Islam A.R.M.T. ; Ahmed I. ; Rahman M.S.
刊名: Natural Hazards
ISSN: 0921030X
出版年: 2020
卷: 101, 期: 3 起始页码: 879
结束页码: 909
语种: 英语
中文关键词: Bangladesh
; Cooling degree-days
; Heating degree-days
; Land–ocean temperature index
; Random forest model
英文关键词: annual variation
; climate change
; cooling
; heating
; spatiotemporal analysis
; temperature anomaly
; temperature effect
; trend analysis
; Bangladesh
英文摘要: An understanding of the trend in cooling and heating degree-days acts as a driving force for building energy demand under climate change conditions. However, little is known about the spatiotemporal trend patterns in cooling and heating degree-days in recent times and their possible causes in Bangladesh. Therefore, we explored the trend and variability of cooling degree-days (CDD) and heating degree-days (HDD) and their possible reasons for variation for the study period 1980–2017 based on daily temperatures datasets from 27 sites in Bangladesh. The results show that the highest annual mean CDD and HDD were identified in the southwestern and central climatic regions of Bangladesh. The CDD trend has significantly increased in Bangladesh, and the HDD trend has increased but non-significance. The outcomes of detrended fluctuation analysis (DFA) and R/S analysis exhibit that CDD and HDD will continue their contemporary trend direction in the future. Land–Ocean Temperature Index (LOTI) had a significant positive influence on CDD; however, there was no significant correlation between HDD and atmospheric circulation indices. The importance analysis from the random forest (RF) model showed that the LOTI is the highest contributing variable for CDD and East Asian Summer Monsoon Index (EASMI) is the largest influential variable for HDD affecting climate variability in Bangladesh. ECMWF ERA5 reanalysis datasets depict that higher summer geopotential height, an anticyclonic center, enhanced relative humidity, declined total and high cloud covers, decreasing surface solar radiation, and high skin temperature fluxes might have influenced on CDD and HDD variations in Bangladesh. © 2020, Springer Nature B.V. Citation statistics:
资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/168539
Appears in Collections: 气候变化与战略
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作者单位: Department of Disaster Management, Begum Rokeya University, Rangpur, 5400, Bangladesh
Recommended Citation:
Islam A.R.M.T.,Ahmed I.,Rahman M.S.. Trends in cooling and heating degree-days overtimes in Bangladesh? An investigation of the possible causes of changes[J]. Natural Hazards,2020-01-01,101(3)