| DOI: | 10.1007/s11069-020-03903-2
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| 论文题名: | Tsunami evacuation simulation considering road blockage by collapsed buildings evaluated from predicted strong ground motion |
| 作者: | Ito E.; Kawase H.; Matsushima S.; Hatayama M.
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| 刊名: | Natural Hazards
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| ISSN: | 0921030X
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| 出版年: | 2020
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| 卷: | 101, 期:3 | | 起始页码: | 959
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| 结束页码: | 980
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| 语种: | 英语
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| 中文关键词: | Agent-based simulation
; Building damage
; Earthquake-resistant building
; Evacuation planning
; Strong motion estimation
; Tsunami evacuation
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| 英文关键词: | building
; collapse
; damage
; disaster management
; simulation
; strong motion
; tsunami
; Honshu
; Japan
; Kinki
; Nankai Trough
; Pacific Ocean
; Wakayama [Kinki]
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| 英文摘要: | Tsunami evacuation simulations are often used to determine necessary countermeasures that will reduce human loss effectively after earthquakes and subsequent tsunamis. However, so far there has been no simulation for the estimated building damage using up-to-date knowledge of seismic engineering. In this study, in order to clarify the effect of building damage on a tsunami evacuation, we first predicted building damage based on the nonlinear response analysis for a realistic strong ground motion and then simulated a tsunami evacuation considering road blockage due to the collapsed buildings. We used one district in Tanabe City in Wakayama Prefecture in Japan where we expect to have a 12 m of tsunami height after an earthquake along the Nankai Trough plate boundary. We found that the prepared capacity of evacuation sites is not enough to let everyone evacuate and that the number of survivors increases by 3–4% if all of the buildings and houses are seismically reinforced. Considering this, plus 1% of expected casualties inside the collapsed houses, it appears to be not as efficient to reinforce buildings and houses to prevent human loss in comparison with increasing the capacity of tsunami evacuation sites in the target district. However, the damage to building and houses will cause a lot of side effects which are not considered here, but will prolong the evacuation time. Thus, we concluded that we need to reinforce the buildings and houses as well as consider the appropriate placement, number, and capacity of the evacuation sites. © 2020, The Author(s). |
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| 资源类型: | 期刊论文
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| 标识符: | http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/168541
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| Appears in Collections: | 气候变化与战略
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作者单位: | Disaster Prevention Research Institute, Kyoto University, Gokasho, Uji-shi, Kyoto, Japan
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| Recommended Citation: | |
Ito E.,Kawase H.,Matsushima S.,et al. Tsunami evacuation simulation considering road blockage by collapsed buildings evaluated from predicted strong ground motion[J]. Natural Hazards,2020-01-01,101(3)
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