globalchange  > 气候变化与战略
DOI: 10.1007/s11069-020-03970-5
论文题名:
Thinking outside the polygon: a study of tornado warning perception outside of warning polygon bounds
作者: Krocak M.J.; Ernst S.; Allan J.N.; Wehde W.; Ripberger J.T.; Silva C.L.; Jenkins-Smith H.C.
刊名: Natural Hazards
ISSN: 0921030X
出版年: 2020
卷: 102, 期:3
起始页码: 1351
结束页码: 1368
语种: 英语
中文关键词: False alarm effect ; Information reception ; Risk analysis ; Tornado warnings
英文关键词: natural hazard ; perception ; polygon ; tornado ; warning system ; weather forecasting
英文摘要: When the National Weather Service (NWS) issues a tornado warning, the alert is rapidly and widely disseminated to individuals in the general area of the warning. Historically, the assumption has been that a false-negative warning perception (i.e., when someone located within a warning polygon does not believe they have received a tornado warning) carries a higher cost than a false-positive warning perception (i.e., when someone located outside the warning area believes they have received a warning). While many studies investigate tornado warning false alarms (i.e., when the NWS issues a tornado warning, but a tornado does not actually occur), less work focuses on studying individuals outside of the warning polygon bounds who believe they received a warning (i.e., false-positive perceptions). This work attempts to quantify the occurrence of false-positive perceptions and possible factors associated with the rate of occurrence. Following two separate storm events, Oklahomans were asked whether they perceived a tornado warning. Their geolocated responses were then compared to issued warning polygons. Individuals closer to tornado warnings or within a different type of warning (e.g., a severe thunderstorm warning) are more likely to report a false-positive perception than those farther away or outside of other hazard warnings. Further work is needed to understand the rate of false-positive perceptions across different hazards and how this may influence warning response and trust in the National Weather Service. © 2020, Springer Nature B.V.
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资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/168569
Appears in Collections:气候变化与战略

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作者单位: Center for Risk and Crisis Management, University of Oklahoma, 5 Partners Place, 201 Stephenson Parkway, Suite 2300, Norman, OK 73019, United States; National Institute for Risk and Resilience, 5 Partners Place, 201 Stephenson Parkway, Suite 2300, Norman, OK 73019, United States; Cooperative Institute for Mesoscale Meteorological Studies, National Weather Center, 120 David L. Boren Blvd., Suite 2100, Norman, OK 73072, United States; NOAA/OAR National Severe Storms Laboratory, National Weather Center, 120 David L. Boren Blvd., Norman, OK 73072, United States

Recommended Citation:
Krocak M.J.,Ernst S.,Allan J.N.,et al. Thinking outside the polygon: a study of tornado warning perception outside of warning polygon bounds[J]. Natural Hazards,2020-01-01,102(3)
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